Pachter thinks Natal will launch after 2010 to counter 'Wii HD

[parallaxscroll]

Project Natal to launch as Wii HD spoiler

Microsoft's motion control technology Project Natal is most likely to be introduced as a spoiler to dampen the launch of an expected high definition upgrade to Nintendo's Wii console.

That's according to Michael Pachter, analyst for Wedbush Morgan, who doesn't believe the new Microsoft tech is likely to launch until after 2010 and only with significant third-party support.

"We think that Project Natal is intended less as a game control scheme than it is as an easy-to-use dashboard control scheme, and we do not expect the device to be launched at retail until it has sufficient third party game support to justify a majority of the installed base to purchase it (we estimate 30 third party games would be sufficient)," wrote Pachter in a note following last week's E3 conference.

"We do not see Project Natal as a Wii killer; rather, we think that Microsoft intends to introduce it at the same time as the launch of the Wii HD, and hopes to hold off Nintendo’s plans to encroach on Xbox 360 turf after 2010."

Project Natal incorporates motion control, voice and camera recognition, and was shown at E3 not only with basic game prototypes, but also as a demo with users interacting with an AI character.

But Pachter pointed to more integration of online services with Xbox Live as the company's most significant unveiling last week, as it adds Netflix, Facebook, Twitter and Last.fm to the console's offerings.

"We were most impressed by the company’s clear enunciation of its strategy to turn the Xbox 360 into an internet and media hub for the living room, and we believe that the most momentous news of the press conference was the opening up of the Xbox Live dashboard to the internet.

"Among Microsoft’s many announcements, the company unveiled its intention to allow interaction with the Netflix website, to allow free streaming of FM radio through Last.fm, and to allow Xbox Live members to access Facebook and Twitter through the Xbox Live dashboard.

"These announcements demonstrate the power of Xbox Live as a web browser, and signal an intention to convert the 30 million plus installed Xbox 360 base before Apple TV can gain a foothold in the media hub market," he said.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...poiler-analyst

[j_factor]

Lame.

[Bojay1997]

I really wish people would stop interviewing this guy. He is correct literally like 25% of the time. Most of us could probably make more accurate predictions than he does.

[Trebuken]

It's self-contradicting. It's less of a gme control but won't launch until it has a 30 game commitment.

I hope it launchs before that.

I think we can almost assume a Fable III commitment...

[Iron Draggon]

so eventually your XBOX360 will be able to do everything that your PC can do... imagine that... surely nobody could ever have predicted that happening!

[scooterb23]

I predict companies will release games and new technology for people to buy in the future.

Why can't I make the mad loot like other professional guessers?

[The 1 2 P]

I really wish people would stop interviewing this guy. He is correct literally like 25% of the time.

I predict you are wrong. Maybe I have a shot at this whole prediction thing too. Granted that was just a brief unscientific(whatever that means) sample of him and nine other analyst, but he still made the most correct predictions(highest percentage of accuracy). That doesn't mean that he hasn't made lots of incorrect ones as well(which they also document a few of those).

Bottom line, analyst are just paid to do a job. And their job description hinges on the same skill set of weather men and fortune tellers. But still, I'd love to get paid what they make for a job where being wrong on a daily basis is considered an expected misgiving.

[Bojay1997]

I predict you are wrong. Maybe I have a shot at this whole prediction thing too. Granted that was just a brief unscientific(whatever that means) sample of him and nine other analyst, but he still made the most correct predictions(highest percentage of accuracy). That doesn't mean that he hasn't made lots of incorrect ones as well(which they also document a few of those).

Bottom line, analyst are just paid to do a job. And their job description hinges on the same skill set of weather men and fortune tellers. But still, I'd love to get paid what they make for a job where being wrong on a daily basis is considered an expected misgiving.

You're looking at data from 2007 and it was only a small sampling of his statements. During the past year, he has really gone out on a limb a number of times and I don't know that much of what he speculated about came true. Speaking to some of the PR people I know in the industry, this guy doesn't even get most of his info from the companies anymore, he just basically comes up with a prediction based on where he thinks the market is going. A good analyst has a great relationship with the companies and industries he analyzes and uses that data to come up with informed opinions and recommendations that lead people to make decisions about where and how they invest. Admittedly there is a possibility of companies misleading analysts to push up values, but the alternative of just guessing which way the wind is blowing is far less accurate.

[ProgrammingAce]

Remember, this guy usually has inside information too. He's not just joe schmoe off the street making guesses. Most of this stuff is pretty common knowledge by the time he makes his predictions. Hell, i've seen him "predict" things that were already printed in magazines.

Come on, jewels like this?

Halo 3 will drive the sales of the Xbox 360, which could exceed selling 400,000 units in September 2007.

Halo 3 sold 530,000 copies in the first month, way to under guess by 25%. Nice safe prediction there.

John Woo will want to make more video games, as that's what action movie directors want to do now.

Wow, really? That's a bold prediction considering Woo owns a production company that's been trying to get into games for years...

Come on, this guy has inside information and he's still only right 60% of the time...