Rumor: Xbox Natal is Actually Microsoft's Next Console

[NayusDante]

Depends on the game these days. Some games can run natively at 1080p. Some games (like Halo 3) run at really stupid resolutions somewhere in the middle (1152x640)

That's not in the middle. That's below 720p (1280x720@60fps progressive).

1080p is actually pretty impressive for gaming. Rendering a 1920x1080 image at 60fps takes a decent bit of power, and it's pretty good for PCs right now. If Microsoft can make good on that claim, rendering natively at 1080p, that's a good little box. Then again, remember how Sony acted like a kid who just learned a new word? All that talk about the PS3 outputting 1080p, and look how many games we have that actually do it. I actually prefer the upscaled image of my Xbox 360 to the 720p native image from my PS3.

[Sabz5150]

Their entire console division.

Quoted for the sad, painful truth.

[kedawa]

Maybe I missed it, but what will the media be? They can't use Blu-Ray, so what then? Can't use DVD's, 4.7 gigs in puny. Even dual layer is nothing.

I don't know why you think they can't use Blu-Ray. Sony wants it to be the new optical standard. Refusing to license it to MS would not only be a dick move, but also illegal in most of the world, as it would be an anti-competitive practice.
Also, 360 uses 9GB dual layer DVDs.

[NayusDante]

Their entire console division.

Hey, GD-ROM powered a lot of arcade machines!

[The 1 2 P]

I really doubt they will abandon the current 360 for a newer model this early on, especially with the 30 million customers they have. Natal is just going to be an additional controller interface add on. Theres a reason why they said it will work with every 360 ever made and thats because it's just an add on, NOT a brand new console.

Pricing also seems to be an issue. Something this innovative can't be cheap but pricing it more than $100 will be the kiss of death at retail. And for those of you who think an $80-100 price tag won't fly with the general public either, allow me to remind you that the Wii Fit balance board cost $90 and has no problem at all selling out in stores. Add to that the fact that Natal camera will be able to do much more than the balance board and theres Microsoft's argument for a $100 price point.

[Steve W]

They would probably use... HDDVDs. No really, think about it. If they cant use Blu Ray, and DVD is too puny, why not go with what already exists? There is no sense in wasting tons of money developing yet another proprietery format for game discs. Not like it would play movies in HDDVD

Really think about that. All the millions of dollars of research and development have already gone into the HD-DVD format, so there's no cost to engineer a new format. Then there's the fact that it's been killed off by its parent companies, which means that the rights to the technology would be fairly cheap to buy. Then think about the fact that there are no HD-DVD recorders in computers, and there's probably not a whole lot of people with access to HD-DVD mastering hardware. So you have a format that can't easily be pirated like DVDs can, or Blu-Rays since computers are beginning to trickle out on the market with Blu-Ray drives and eventually they'll be cracked (or have they already? I don't keep up with that kind of thing).

The HD-DVD format may be the best thing for Microsoft at this point to keep piracy at bay.

[NayusDante]

I really doubt they will abandon the current 360 for a newer model this early on, especially with the 30 million customers they have. Natal is just going to be an additional controller interface add on. Theres a reason why they said it will work with every 360 ever made and thats because it's just an add on, NOT a brand new console.

Pricing also seems to be an issue. Something this innovative can't be cheap but pricing it more than $100 will be the kiss of death at retail. And for those of you who think an $80-100 price tag won't fly with the general public either, allow me to remind you that the Wii Fit balance board cost $90 and has no problem at all selling out in stores. Add to that the fact that Natal camera will be able to do much more than the balance board and theres Microsoft's argument for a $100 price point.

Actually, I can't see it costing very much to produce. Everything it does is going to be software. From the looks of it, it takes two (or more) video cameras and the image is analyzed to track the body. These cameras AREN'T expensive. The DSi has TWO of them, and it's not even $50 more than the DS. We're not talking about 9 megapixel SLR stuff here, they're going to use what you get on a phone. Most of the price will probably be the bundled software.

[CosmicMonkey]

I think it'll be a redesigned Xbox 360 packaged with a standard pad and the Natal unit. The name will also be changed to Xbox Natal, or whatever Natal ends up being called. The 'Xbox Revolution' maybe? The Natal unit will obviously be sold separately in some sort of starter pack for current 360 owners.

A spec bump would be interesting, but newer games would still need to work on current hardware otherwise you'd fracture the userbase. If they used a faster version of the current 500MHz ATI Xenos in the new machine they could manage to make games work on all 360s. It'd sort of be like those few N64 games that worked on a stock unit, but were much prettier with the 4MB RAM pack installed.

[JunkTheMagicDragon]

These cameras AREN'T expensive. The DSi has TWO of them, and it's not even $50 more than the DS. We're not talking about 9 megapixel SLR stuff here, they're going to use what you get on a phone. Most of the price will probably be the bundled software.

these aren't crummy phone cameras like you get on the dsi, although that seems to be a common misconception. this isn't an eyetoy, either.

The device features an "RGB camera, depth sensor, multi-array microphone, and custom processor running proprietary software", which provides full-body 3D motion capture, facial recognition, and voice recognition capabilities.....
The depth sensor consists of an infrared projector combined with a monochrome CMOS sensor, and allows the Project Natal sensor to see in 3D under any ambient light conditions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Natal

[The 1 2 P]

Actually, I can't see it costing very much to produce. Everything it does is going to be software. From the looks of it, it takes two (or more) video cameras and the image is analyzed to track the body. These cameras AREN'T expensive. The DSi has TWO of them, and it's not even $50 more than the DS. We're not talking about 9 megapixel SLR stuff here, they're going to use what you get on a phone. Most of the price will probably be the bundled software.

Yeah but the DSi also has built in wireless and Microsoft sells wireless adapters for $99. As much as I like Microsoft I hate how they overprice some of their accessories and this new camera won't be any different.

[parallaxscroll]

This just in: There will be NO *upgraded* Xbox coming in 2010.

This does not rule out a new Xbox SKU with Natal packed in standard.

Teamxbox claims to have the first details on the true NEXT generation Xbox, which they will be posting in the coming weeks. The next-gen Xbox will not launch until a certain type of televison becomes more widespread.

http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/19960/...You-the-Truth/

[j_factor]

I don't buy that for a second. That technology is way off from wide adoption, if it even catches on at all.

[Zap!]

Generally speaking, a dual layer DVD will provide enough space. The only caveat will be multiple game discs for those FMV happy RPGs. If I'm Microsoft I'm going to do a cost/benefit analysis and ask myself whether the extra storage space of a new format is worth a $100+ premium on the console when most developers won't need the extra gigs.

The problem with going to a format like flash memory or any kind of proprietary format is that the console ends up taking a step backward. If you go with DVD you might not be able to say the consumers can watch movies in the newest high tech format but you can at least say that they can play most of what they've already got and the new machine either exceeds or matches the last one in every category. Taking away DVD playing capability will appear to be a huge step backwards when your last two machines were able to do it just fine.

Admittedly, I don't think many people are wanting of a new DVD player. But while it is highly unlikely that it would be a deal breaker for most people, from a PR perspective it would sound a lot like what Nintendo and Sony have been doing with their handhelds as of late with this zero sum game of "get this but lose that."

Define "enough." A single sided dual layer is 8.54 GB, while a rare doble sided dual layer is 17.08 GB. For a system coming out next year that will have to compete until 2015/2016, you're going to need 50 GB at the very minimum, preferably 75-100 GB.

[TonyTheTiger]

For a system coming out next year that will have to compete until 2015/2016, you're going to need 50 GB at the very minimum, preferably 75-100 GB.

To store what? The reason games are strung along multiple discs on the 360 is due to high definition FMV in the games that have it. Take that out of the picture and I don't see what could possibly require 50 gigs unless the devs really hate compressing their textures and sound.

[Zap!]

To store what? The reason games are strung along multiple discs on the 360 is due to high definition FMV in the games that have it. Take that out of the picture and I don't see what could possibly require 50 gigs unless the devs really hate compressing their textures and sound.

I have been around for a long time, I know the "to store what?" reply and have been hearing for years. In 1994, I bought a 1.26 gig HD. "For what?", they said? 500 megs was enough. In 1999 or so I bought a 40 gig HD. "What are you storing with that?", they said. In 2005, I bought a 300 gig. "Why so big?" My reply then was "Because a terrabyte isn't commercially available yet."

You don't see what could possibly require 50 gigs? In 1990 they didn't see what would requre more than a mere 10 MEGS (not gigs). Wait until the cycle of systems after 2010/2012. By 2020, anything less than a full terra will be unacceptable.

[Sonicwolf]

I have been around for a long time, I know the "to store what?" reply and have been hearing for years. In 1994, I bought a 1.26 gig HD. "For what?", they said? 500 megs was enough. In 1999 or so I bought a 40 gig HD. "What are you storing with that?", they said. In 2005, I bought a 300 gig. "Why so big?" My reply then was "Because a terrabyte isn't commercially available yet."

You don't see what could possibly require 50 gigs? In 1990 they didn't see what would requre more than a mere 10 MEGS (not gigs). Wait until the cycle of systems after 2010/2012. By 2020, anything less than a full terra will be unacceptable.

I remember when my family and I found it troublesome to fill up a 1.5GB hard drive.

Things just keep growing so fast. Just 6 years ago I was happy with a 20 gig.

[Steve W]

I remember when my family and I found it troublesome to fill up a 1.5GB hard drive.

Things just keep growing so fast. Just 6 years ago I was happy with a 20 gig.

The thing is, my iTunes backup folder is now around 100 gigabytes. In a decade I can see myself having a 20 terabyte USB flash drive on a keychain, and complaining that it doesn't hold enough anymore.

And on that note, I give you the song, Hey Hey 16K. http://www2.b3ta.com/heyhey16k/

[j_factor]

I have been around for a long time, I know the "to store what?" reply and have been hearing for years. In 1994, I bought a 1.26 gig HD. "For what?", they said? 500 megs was enough. In 1999 or so I bought a 40 gig HD. "What are you storing with that?", they said. In 2005, I bought a 300 gig. "Why so big?" My reply then was "Because a terrabyte isn't commercially available yet."

You don't see what could possibly require 50 gigs? In 1990 they didn't see what would requre more than a mere 10 MEGS (not gigs). Wait until the cycle of systems after 2010/2012. By 2020, anything less than a full terra will be unacceptable.

Hard drives aren't the same as media formats. Hard drives have continually increased as we increase the types of things we put on them. A disc format for games is still just for a game.

There comes a point where it levels off. Look at music, for example. CD's were introduced a long time ago, and they're pretty much "it" as far as physical media goes. SACD and DVD-audio (or anything similar) will never take off because the benefits require high-end equipment and optimal listening conditions, and even then the difference isn't that great to most people's ears. Similarly, I remember seeing 64kps mp3's a long time ago, and they were awful. Now most people don't see a reason to go higher than 256, and it's been that way for quite a while. There's FLAC, which has been around for years, if you're serious about audio quality. There's nothing beyond FLAC (there are similar lossless codecs, but they're on the same level in terms of quality and file size). We're "done"; it ain't getting any bigger.

Something like that will happen with video in the foreseeable future. We can go beyond 1080p, but eventually resolutions will be so high that making them higher would be beyond most people's vision ability to discern.

[TonyTheTiger]

I have been around for a long time, I know the "to store what?" reply and have been hearing for years. In 1994, I bought a 1.26 gig HD. "For what?", they said? 500 megs was enough. In 1999 or so I bought a 40 gig HD. "What are you storing with that?", they said. In 2005, I bought a 300 gig. "Why so big?" My reply then was "Because a terrabyte isn't commercially available yet."

You don't see what could possibly require 50 gigs? In 1990 they didn't see what would requre more than a mere 10 MEGS (not gigs). Wait until the cycle of systems after 2010/2012. By 2020, anything less than a full terra will be unacceptable.

As stated above, a HDD is hardly an equivalent analogy. I'm sure you used those drives for many, many purposes and constantly added new stuff without deleting other stuff. When you make a game you generally don't add stuff to the media once it ships out. People will work within their limitations and always manage to use what they're given. If you give somebody three months to write a term paper, he will take three months. If you give him three weeks, he'll be done in three weeks.

And of all potential bottlenecks and technical problems, storage space is rarely the most immediate limitation. Time, money, and other related technologies are. Even the ground level things like artistic ability matters more. You could give current developers a 1,000 TB format to work with and they wouldn't be pumping out games that look and sound head and shoulders above what we're currently getting. What they would do is not compress anything and pad the disc to screw up potential pirates who will shit themselves when they see a torrent of a file far larger than their HDD can hold.

[Nature Boy]

Why hasn't anybody else suggested that the next gen Xbox is download only instead of arguing over whether it'll be BluRay, HD-DVD, DVD, or who knows what else?

Maybe it keeps a DVD device so that it's BC with the original Xbox, but there really aren't a lot of downsides to downloading from their point of view, or the publisher's. Less piracy. No re-sale games. Plus they can measure sales data exactly and market much more effectively.

I've seen Patapon 2 for sale in stores, with a note saying that the game isn't actually in the box - that you'll have to download it. I think that's the future my friends, not a debate over discs.