Where do you see the value of video games at in the future?

[guitargary75]

Down, way down.

[The 1 2 P]

The lesson learned from comic books and baseball cards is that only the rarest of the rare games will retain long term value. Everything else will probably flatline if the prices don't approach more acceptable levels(meaning no more multi platinum hits like FF7 selling for $50-100 used).

[calthaer]

The other thing to note about Back to the Future Part II is the fact that, in the future, you will not use your hands to play video games. Old games will become antiques and may be worth a lot of money, depending on rarity. But nobody will play them.

It will be like the Antiques Road Show, except they will replace that "bling" sound with a Super Mario Bros. coin noise.

[Iron Draggon]

original ROMS will hold their value as long as the original hardware to run them holds up, but once working hardware becomes more scarce than the ROMS themelves, the ROMS will become much less desirable to anyone

[gdement]

original ROMS will hold their value as long as the original hardware to run them holds up, but once working hardware becomes more scarce than the ROMS themelves, the ROMS will become much less desirable to anyone

This will be a big problem for disc based consoles. Cartridge systems will last a lot longer, and even when they break they're far easier to repair than the newer stuff.
CDs also just aren't as interesting to look at in a collection.

So all in all, cartridges will probably hold a lot more value.

[plastic]

This will be a big problem for disc based consoles. Cartridge systems will last a lot longer, and even when they break they're far easier to repair than the newer stuff.
CDs also just aren't as interesting to look at in a collection.

So all in all, cartridges will probably hold a lot more value.

Personally, I think CD based games look much better in a collection.

Regardless, I see value plummeting eventually. I think certain genres will maintain value better than others (Shmups, for example)

[Iron Draggon]

This will be a big problem for disc based consoles. Cartridge systems will last a lot longer, and even when they break they're far easier to repair than the newer stuff.
CDs also just aren't as interesting to look at in a collection.

So all in all, cartridges will probably hold a lot more value.

agreed on the hardware, and somewhat agreed on the software, but the art on alot of the picture disc CD's & DVD's is alot more interesting to look at than the art on cart stickers and boxes... plus the new clamshell cases are as pleasing to me as the Genesis clamshells were, and jewel cases still look nicer than cardboard boxes or loose carts to me... but I think it's best to have a mix of all of the above... you have to be pretty into gaming to have all those things in your collection... and it shows how much gaming has evolved over the years too... that makes a collection alot more interesting to admire to me

[GameDeals.ca]

With digital distribution slowly building a library or everything, I expect 95% of retro games to not only go down in price, but to fall to Atari 2600 levels. The concept of games on a physical medium will be lost on future generations, and very few (outside of DP) will want to track down a beat-up console to play a disc with a few scratches on it that may or may not work that they had to drive across town to find it, when they can download it for $10 on the machine they already have. I expect to have a store filled with $1-$2 games for everything, and only a few specific things holding their value (rare/mint stuff and stuff that hasn't/can't be emulated).

I'm actually thinking about (5-10 years from now) turning the store into a non-profit where people donate their worthless games and we sell them for Child's Play Charity. But that's still a long way away.

[duffmanth]

I think sites like Ebay, Kijiji, and Craig's List have devalued rare and common games and rare and common collectibles in general. Games and other items that were once considered rare and could only be found in retail stores at inflated prices, are now common place online and fairly affordable a lot of the time.

As far as games go, a lot of the local used game stores in my area sell rare (or what they consider to be rare) games at somewhat justifiable prices to insanely over priced. A few examples are Metal Gear Solid 3: Limited Edition (Red Box) is $200 CDN at one store. Most people will thinks that's too high, but this game is EXTREMELY rare at retail and on Ebay where it usually goes for $150 minimum. To me that price is a little high, but the right collector might pay that. However when I see a game like Metal Gear Solid: The Twin Snakes going for $60 with a beat up book and scratched discs, that's a little much. I think some games will hold or increase their value over time, but a lot will decrease mostly because they are so widely and cheaply available online.

A lot of people can't grasp the concept of supply and demand, and don't understand that rare games are going to be more expensive. Unfortunately video games appeals to some people who want to play them, but don't want to shell out the money and want everything for nothing or a little as they can get it for. Gaming has always been an expensive hobby and always will be.

[Bojay1997]

I think sites like Ebay, Kijiji, and Craig's List have devalued rare and common games and rare and common collectibles in general. Games and other items that were once considered rare and could only be found in retail stores at inflated prices, are now common place online and fairly affordable a lot of the time.

As far as games go, a lot of the local used game stores in my area sell rare (or what they consider to be rare) games at somewhat justifiable prices to insanely over priced. A few examples are Metal Gear Solid 3: Limited Edition (Red Box) is $200 CDN at one store. Most people will thinks that's too high, but this game is EXTREMELY rare at retail and on Ebay where it usually goes for $150 minimum. To me that price is a little high, but the right collector might pay that. However when I see a game like Metal Gear Solid: The Twin Snakes going for $60 with a beat up book and scratched discs, that's a little much. I think some games will hold or increase their value over time, but a lot will decrease mostly because they are so widely and cheaply available online.

A lot of people can't grasp the concept of supply and demand, and don't understand that rare games are going to be more expensive. Unfortunately video games appeals to some people who want to play them, but don't want to shell out the money and want everything for nothing or a little as they can get it for. Gaming has always been an expensive hobby and always will be.

I agree that supply and demand is important to consider, but contrary to many other commodities, just because a particular game or system is in low supply doesn't necessarily mean that it is in high demand and therefore the value is not necessarily tied entirely to the supply side. There are tons of very numerically rare games that people just have no interest in. Conversely, you have many games that are very common but demand still outstrips supply (or at least people perceive that it's worth paying more on Ebay or at a retail store for a particular game because they personally have had trouble finding one easily) and people pay far more than you might think the value would be when compared to the supply. I don't know how many times I have seen a game rapidly run up in price on Ebay, only to find it easily from another on-line vendor or locally at a far lower price. To some extent, Ebay has resulted in lazier or less sophisticated consumers paying too much for certain items. Video games and collectibles in general are not a good investment simply because there is no clear pattern as far as what goes up in value and what declines. As such, I don't think anyone can really expect or know what the value of video games will be five or ten or fifty years down the road.

[backguard]

i guess i'm a bit more optimistic than many in this thread. i think:

1. Just about any games that come with their original cardboard boxes will continue to increase in price.

2. Grails will pretty much always keep moving up.

3. Some limited editions, the ones that are actually truly limited (i.e. not GTAIV, Halo legendary edition etc), will continue going up, particularly if they are RPGs or from an established genre.

4. Sealed games will continue going up.

5. From this generation forward, only sealed games will increase in value.

6. Pretty much everything else is going to see a decline.

[The 1 2 P]

1. Just about any games that come with their original cardboard boxes will continue to increase in price.

ET for the Atari 2600? Superman 64 for N64? Aquaman on Xbox? Sorry dude but even if you throw in a free sandwich neither of those games(complete) will have a worldwide in demand price point of $10 or more.

4. Sealed games will continue going up.

Try telling that to sealed Snes games like Super Castlevania 4(used to get $100-200 sealed and now only gets $40-70 sealed) and Super Metroid(used to go for $150-300 sealed but now only gets $70-100). Those are just two examples of many other sealed games who's value continues to decline every year.

5. From this generation forward, only sealed games will increase in value.

Maybe "certain" sealed games but it's going to be a very small list, as in about 2% of sealed games this gen "might" increase in value. Games that sell millions of copies(Halo 3, Gears of War, Final Fantasy XIII, God of War 3, Call of Duty 4 and others like that) will never increase overall. All those games will continue to go down. Thats why you can find greatest hits for PS2 and platinum hits for Xbox brand new for $9.99 still in stores today.

I'm not trying to rain on your parade but I don't see the majority of video games(sealed or opened) greatly increasing in value. Something can be a hundred years old(like some of my coins) but if there isn't a great demand for it, then it's not worth the material used to make it. Just go compare the price of comic books and baseball cards today to what they use to go for in the 90's.

[duffmanth]

I agree with your statement, it's just some people don't understand that if a game is rare and there is still fairly high demand for it, odds are that the high price will reflect that. I used to work at a gaming retailer in a town with a Wal-Mart and Dollar Store mentality and most people just couldn't understand that rarer games that are still in demand usually have higher prices. Just as a quick example we used to sell a game like Diablo for PSone usually at $50 or more and people's eyes would pop out of their heads, at the same time someone else who comes along might pay that price b/c they know how rare it is.

And I agree that games and many other items are going for way too much on Ebay, but also at retail as well. I also agree that collecting games, comics, and baseball cards for future financial gain is risky b/c there is only a handful of these collectibles that either hold their value or increase in value.

[Bojay1997]

i guess i'm a bit more optimistic than many in this thread. i think:

1. Just about any games that come with their original cardboard boxes will continue to increase in price.

2. Grails will pretty much always keep moving up.

3. Some limited editions, the ones that are actually truly limited (i.e. not GTAIV, Halo legendary edition etc), will continue going up, particularly if they are RPGs or from an established genre.

4. Sealed games will continue going up.

5. From this generation forward, only sealed games will increase in value.

6. Pretty much everything else is going to see a decline.

I think none of these things will happen.

1) There are tens of millions of games with their original boxes out there. They are harder to find in many cases than loose cartridge games, but still not rare in all but a few unusual cases.

2) Grails are only grails to a very limited number of people. Do you really think a kid born well after the NES generation is really gonna care much about NWC carts or that most people who get into collecting will spend tens of thousands of dollars on grail items when they can get an entire collection for the same price? Heck no. It's just like comics or coins. A very small group of wealthy collectors own the rarest and most expensive stuff and the vast majority of collectors don't ever even try to find them. As a result, as the economy dips and climbs, so too do prices at the high end.

3) Limited editions are a completely manufactured collectible and have never been and will never be rare. There are some that are in demand because not enough were printed to satisfy demand, but they seem to hit a certain price level and then either fall or just remain stable.

4) Depends on the game. There are literally thousands of sealed games going back to the 1970s that are worth far less than they sold for back in the day. Even when I pay $40-$50 for a sealed game, I am paying the same as or less than the game sold for at the time and inflation means that I am actually getting a huge bargain on older games.

5) Again, depends on the game. If something truly rare and obscure comes along, complete copies will grow in value as well. Being sealed is a nice bonus, but a lot of people collect mint/complete stuff too.

6) I think it's safe to say all video games will see a decline in value over time. Being sealed, "limited", boxed or a grail really offers little or no protection from the economy and people just frankly moving on to other things. I would also add that this is one of the few hobbies that has literally had collectors since almost the very beginning of the industry, so it's not like comics or even toys where people threw them away thus sharply reducing the supply at some point. There are still millions of copies of even the earliest games out there in garages, thrift shops, attics, old warehouses, etc...You can also enjoy the actual experience or play value of the game through so many other sources now (emulation, downloads, remakes, reprints) that essentially what many of us are collecting is just a box and a shell. Anyone can basically own the games themselves for next to nothing. You can't say the same thing about many other collectibles.

[swlovinist]

This hobby is fairly new to others, so I predict that the value will both lower and rise over time like a yo-yo. As people of the Genesis, Snes, and Playstation start to get to an age of disposable income, I see those values rising, mostly on the rare stuff. I also agree that some ebay sellers have been hyper inflating the prices of this stuff, so common uncommon games will be lower. Craigslist is awsome if you know how to use it, and I feel that unless something is truly rare, that it will help be a balance check for prices in the future.

[backguard]

All of my assertions are based on the premise that more people will be entering into the hobby. Supply isn't going to go up for rare items (despite digital distribution, nobody collects e-copies of things), so if more collectors join the ranks, demand goes up, and prices go up accordingly. I don't think this is unreasonable - games are finally becoming more mainstream. I'm sure that will lead some people to join the ranks of collectors.

But if people don't continue entering the hobby, all bets are off.

I think none of these things will happen.

1) There are tens of millions of games with their original boxes out there. They are harder to find in many cases than loose cartridge games, but still not rare in all but a few unusual cases.

My thinking on this is that cardboard boxes inevitably get damaged/destroyed and become rarer over time. Overtime, people will have more difficulty getting them, especially in good condition.

2) Grails are only grails to a very limited number of people. Do you really think a kid born well after the NES generation is really gonna care much about NWC carts or that most people who get into collecting will spend tens of thousands of dollars on grail items when they can get an entire collection for the same price? Heck no. It's just like comics or coins. A very small group of wealthy collectors own the rarest and most expensive stuff and the vast majority of collectors don't ever even try to find them. As a result, as the economy dips and climbs, so too do prices at the high end.

I disagree on that. Grails are grails. Just like a rookie Mickey Mantle, high profile games of extreme rarity, such as the NWC, will continue to go up. Just like the baseball card market, things like the Mickey Mantles have continued to increase, but the market for commons basically has dropped out.

3) Limited editions are a completely manufactured collectible and have never been and will never be rare. There are some that are in demand because not enough were printed to satisfy demand, but they seem to hit a certain price level and then either fall or just remain stable.

Some limited editions are actually rare, and those are the ones I expect to continue to increase in value. Mana Khemia LE was limited to 1000, MGS3 LE was quite limited. The Mega Man 9 press kit was very limited. Digital Devil Saga LE was very limited. These continue to go up in value or at least hold their own. I agree though, so many LE's are not really LEs (GTAIV!!), but I think the ones that are truly limited will continue to go up.

4) Depends on the game. There are literally thousands of sealed games going back to the 1970s that are worth far less than they sold for back in the day. Even when I pay $40-$50 for a sealed game, I am paying the same as or less than the game sold for at the time and inflation means that I am actually getting a huge bargain on older games.

Agreed, but I don't think we are talking about sealed games purchased at retail. Sure if you purchased a NES Hoops at retail and hung on to it, you'd have lost money. But you can't do that anymore. Everything from previous generations is basically aftermarket and not determined by MSRP.

5) Again, depends on the game. If something truly rare and obscure comes along, complete copies will grow in value as well. Being sealed is a nice bonus, but a lot of people collect mint/complete stuff too.

My thinking here is that mint/complete stuff from at least ps1 on is too common to really increase substantially. The only way rarity plays into games past this generation is if they are unopened. Tons of examples out there - Silent Hill 1 approx 40 opened vs 150 sealed, Kingdom Hearts, 10 used 100+ sealed.

6) I think it's safe to say all video games will see a decline in value over time. Being sealed, "limited", boxed or a grail really offers little or no protection from the economy and people just frankly moving on to other things. I would also add that this is one of the few hobbies that has literally had collectors since almost the very beginning of the industry, so it's not like comics or even toys where people threw them away thus sharply reducing the supply at some point. There are still millions of copies of even the earliest games out there in garages, thrift shops, attics, old warehouses, etc...You can also enjoy the actual experience or play value of the game through so many other sources now (emulation, downloads, remakes, reprints) that essentially what many of us are collecting is just a box and a shell. Anyone can basically own the games themselves for next to nothing. You can't say the same thing about many other collectibles.

I don't think you can say all games will decrease over time. I tried to identify some cases where I don't think that is true. Sure the market is affected by economic fluctuations; so is basically any other investment vehicle. But even despite all of the stuff going on right now, games prices have remained relatively stable and have certainly outperformed the S&P. I think that demonstrates the strength of the overall game collecting market.

[Bojay1997]

All of my assertions are based on the premise that more people will be entering into the hobby. Supply isn't going to go up for rare items (despite digital distribution, nobody collects e-copies of things), so if more collectors join the ranks, demand goes up, and prices go up accordingly. I don't think this is unreasonable - games are finally becoming more mainstream. I'm sure that will lead some people to join the ranks of collectors.

But if people don't continue entering the hobby, all bets are off.



My thinking on this is that cardboard boxes inevitably get damaged/destroyed and become rarer over time. Overtime, people will have more difficulty getting them, especially in good condition.



I disagree on that. Grails are grails. Just like a rookie Mickey Mantle, high profile games of extreme rarity, such as the NWC, will continue to go up. Just like the baseball card market, things like the Mickey Mantles have continued to increase, but the market for commons basically has dropped out.



Some limited editions are actually rare, and those are the ones I expect to continue to increase in value. Mana Khemia LE was limited to 1000, MGS3 LE was quite limited. The Mega Man 9 press kit was very limited. Digital Devil Saga LE was very limited. These continue to go up in value or at least hold their own. I agree though, so many LE's are not really LEs (GTAIV!!), but I think the ones that are truly limited will continue to go up.



Agreed, but I don't think we are talking about sealed games purchased at retail. Sure if you purchased a NES Hoops at retail and hung on to it, you'd have lost money. But you can't do that anymore. Everything from previous generations is basically aftermarket and not determined by MSRP.



My thinking here is that mint/complete stuff from at least ps1 on is too common to really increase substantially. The only way rarity plays into games past this generation is if they are unopened. Tons of examples out there - Silent Hill 1 approx 40 opened vs 150 sealed, Kingdom Hearts, 10 used 100+ sealed.



I don't think you can say all games will decrease over time. I tried to identify some cases where I don't think that is true. Sure the market is affected by economic fluctuations; so is basically any other investment vehicle. But even despite all of the stuff going on right now, games prices have remained relatively stable and have certainly outperformed the S&P. I think that demonstrates the strength of the overall game collecting market.

Just to clarify a few points, while you may be assuming that more people will enter the hobby, you also have to account for the fact that many will leave it as well, especially when they get married, get older, lose interest, etc...I think it's very hard to know just how many people collect now and what those numbers will look like in the future. The number of comic collectors and baseball card collectors fell off a cliff in the mid to late 90s and has never recovered.

Most people could care less about grails. While a Mickey Mantle card may be valuable, it doesn't go up an automatic 10-15% per year since there are only a limited number of people who can afford it and only a few that get sold annually. Most people don't even own any real video game grails since there are literally a handful of those, so unless your collection is all grails and you plan on holding them for ten years and then selling them for profit, it doesn't really matter whether they go up in value or not. Frankly, some are so overinflated in value now that I doubt they can go any higher unless very rich people get into the hobby.

The US version of Mana Khemia in the LE box was printed in a quantity of 10,000 units, not 1,000. I think you are confusing the fact that Rosenqueen only sold 1,000 copies with the fact that the same box set was available from Amazon and local independent retailers, as well as many Gamestop locations. MGS 3 LE was apparently 15,000 units. While that doesn't sound like much, it's still enough to satisfy hardcore collectors who absolutely must have it while keeping the price under a few hundred bucks. There is very little chance those prices will continue to rise as they have been stable for the last year or so.

I only mentioned the retail example because a lot of what I buy factory sealed from Ebay or in the wild was once purchased by the seller at MSRP or maybe a slight discount. When I buy someone's 20 year old sealed game at $40, they are actually losing money on the deal when you factor in inflation, storage costs, etc...So, if I had been a collector who started buying games at full MSRP 20 years ago like a lot of collectors do for modern games, I would have lost a significant amount of my "investment".

Silent Hill and Kingdom Hearts are great examples of why I think the sealed logic is flawed. There are probably tens of thousands of sealed copies of both games still in homes, attics, storage units, warehouses, etc...They sold in the multiple millions each. They are not and will never be worth more than MSRP despite the fact that foolish Ebay buyers are paying premiums for them now. This is exactly what happened in comics and baseball cards before they crashed in the 90s. People don't understand that it takes a little time for the secondary supply of things to trickle out from wholesalers, forgotten stock, individuals who have unwanted gifts, etc....

Game prices have absolutely not outperformed the S&P, unless you are just talking about during the last year of the financial crisis. Many games have gone down significantly in value over time. Some have maintained and a few have increased. That's not a market that people should be speculating in.

[backguard]

Game prices have absolutely not outperformed the S&P, unless you are just talking about during the last year of the financial crisis. Many games have gone down significantly in value over time. Some have maintained and a few have increased. That's not a market that people should be speculating in.

I was just talking about the last year or so. Notwithstanding that, you make me want to sell my collection.

[GameDeals.ca]

RE: Supply & Demand.

In spite of the DP forum populace, most gamers aren't hardcore collectors and will accept a digital version of the game that plays on their current console, and Digital Distribution creates infinite supply. Demand will never exceed infinite, so prices will come down.

[duffmanth]

I would say that games that come with their manuals and boxes will always be worth more than ones that don't. I would also agree that RARE games and sealed will always be worth more and will probably at least hold their current value and possibly increase in value in the future. I disagree that only sealed games will go up in value while everything else will decrease.

I think the biggest thing that's going to drive up the value of rare and common games both, is if there is still demand for them.