John Carmack: PS4 will be first to market

[Gapporin]

John Carmack's a good guy to talk about what's going on in gaming....in 1994.

1994 or not, you can't deny that the man helped create one of the best PC games ever made.

Of course, I'm talking about The Catacomb.

[Nebagram]

Digital Distribution will be rapidly re-thought once the PSP Go, to put it bluntly, goes. As for the PS4 kicking off the 8th generation... I highly doubt it. The PS2 still has life in it, let alone the PS3.

In fact I doubt we'll even see the 8th generation until 2012 at the very earliest. I don't just mean release dates, I mean announcements.

[The 1 2 P]

I'm sure Sony's typical corporate response would be: "We have never been first to market with our consoles because we never had to be. Well, except for this current gen."

[smork]

zomg ken i liek preorder nao?

[geneshifter]

zomg ken i liek preorder nao?

Can this trend in internet communication die already? Pretty please?

[Ed Oscuro]

Hey, looks like iD Software was "first to market" cuz they failed, LOLZ

(w/ apologies to ProgAce heh)

zomg Keen i liek preorder nao?

fixed

Back on topic: So basically consoles are cheap PCs without drives or the pretty graphics (but at a lower price). What else isn't new?

This makes the consoles an even tougher sell to me, and probably is going to drive more developers to look seriously at other digital-distribution systems that do not require such blisteringly expensive and restrictive licensing and control as publishing through Sony, MS, etc. would.

[badinsults]

I think the Iphone is pretty good proof that digital distribution is here, and it is the future. Though the argument that a console without optical media coming soon is pretty silly, especially since the current consoles have the ability to download full versions of big releases already.

[ScourDX]

So far I am not convince Digital Distribution is a way to go. Company has a lot to prove before digital distribution is a norm. First they have to prove regional content is not restricted to one region. Anyone should be able to purchased or download content from anywhere around the world.

Secondly, DO NOT put DRM on any content. DRM never proves to work. It cause more problem than to solve. Example: Gears of War DRM. Thirdly, make their price fair. It would suck if people from Asia would have to pay USD price to download one game.

[Ed Oscuro]

I think STEAM is pretty good proof that digital distribution is here, and it is the future.

Even better than the iPhone. No "oh gawsh we don't liek ur code" shenanigans going on there. Plus mods work right from the main menu, and you can even add non-Steam games for convenience (though I never do that).

So far I am not convince Digital Distribution is a way to go. Company has a lot to prove before digital distribution is a norm. [...] Secondly, DO NOT put DRM on any content. DRM never proves to work. It cause more problem than to solve.

"How is DRRM formed?????"

They need to do way instain company> who DRM thier playyers. becuse these playyer cant nocd back

[SegaAges]

1994 or not, you can't deny that the man helped create one of the best PC games ever made.

Of course, I'm talking about The Catacomb.

Holy fuck man, you just became my idol for bringing that game up. That game was awesome.

Honestly, even though I know what happened with ps2 vs dc, I surely hope sony does not make the same mistake with the ps4 by releasing it too early.

I will not deny that ps3 is awesome. ps3 is an awesome system. it is just not holding the sales as well as the other 2 systems.

saturn was an awesome system, but was not able to keep the numbers against the ps1 (i do not know how well it did against the n64, but i am sure somebody else could fill in that blank).

then the dc came out. it came out a year before ps2, and did not do near as well either. while it still did pretty good (shit, it still has games coming out for it), it was just not able to hold the numbers of the ps2 and then the xbox came out later on.

while sony is a huge fucking company, if ps4 falls to the same fate as the dc, at least it will not take down the entire company. sony sells enough vaio's and tv's to support themselves if need be.

[j_factor]

The first console of a generation never ends up being #1. 360, Dreamcast, 3DO, Turbografx, none of those were #1 systems. You have to go back to the NES, and that's a very special case, with the crash (and somewhat debatable, since 7800's were sold on a limited basis in '84). Hell, the VCS came after the Channel-F. So given that, why would Sony be in a rush to come out first?

[DeputyMoniker]

The writing is on the wall, guys. With the PSP Go and 360 games being available in the marketplace, I can't help but think we just entered the "Next-gen Beta." I'll leave the analysis to the business majors...but Sony & MS seem to be looking in the same direction. Seems that infrastructure aside, Nintendo wouldn't have too hard a time moving toward an exclusively DD console. Considering the size of their games, I mean.

EDIT:

The first console of a generation never ends up being #1. 360, Dreamcast, 3DO, Turbografx, none of those were #1 systems. You have to go back to the NES, and that's a very special case, with the crash (and somewhat debatable, since 7800's were sold on a limited basis in '84). Hell, the VCS came after the Channel-F. So given that, why would Sony be in a rush to come out first?

Whoa whoa...stop and think about what you just said.
"Why would Sony..."
Hmm. How can I put this? Sony does stupid shit sometimes. Is that too harsh? ;P

[j_factor]

The writing is on the wall, guys. With the PSP Go and 360 games being available in the marketplace, I can't help but think we just entered the "Next-gen Beta." I'll leave the analysis to the business majors...but Sony & MS seem to be looking in the same direction. Seems that infrastructure aside, Nintendo wouldn't have too hard a time moving toward an exclusively DD console. Considering the size of their games, I mean.

But... what if the PSP Go is a huge flop? What if marketplace sales of 360 retail games fall flat?

Whoa whoa...stop and think about what you just said.
"Why would Sony..."
Hmm. How can I put this? Sony does stupid shit sometimes. Is that too harsh? ;P

I'm not saying Sony definitely won't come out first, I'm just saying John Carmack's reasoning makes no sense.

[DeputyMoniker]

But... what if the PSP Go is a huge flop? What if marketplace sales of 360 retail games fall flat?

I'm no analyst...buuuuut, here's how my theory goes. Regardless the amount of success the Go finds, it has a unique place in the market. In the sense that, in theory, Sony wouldn't have to front a lot of money to get it out there. They should be able to fund it with investment capital that's been allocated toward R&D. So I doubt, in my humble opinion, that Sony is expecting a great deal of retail success from the Go. All that I expect to be gained from its release is knowledge. Where would they plan to use the experience gained? Perhaps their next console. Not only would BlueRay require too much HDD space, but the PS3 has already had a hard time finding any solid ground...so if I am right, the PSP is the only logical place for Sony to play this game. I mean, I think they're reaching the end of its life...so it isn't a great risk. I don't know, I'm just guessing here but it makes sense to me.

As for the 360 games, it isn't much of a risk at all. Either you go buy it on disc, or you download it. Either way, whatever people download will make for an educational experience for Microsoft. This is where it ties in with the Go. Looking toward the future.

I'm not saying Sony definitely won't come out first, I'm just saying John Carmack's reasoning makes no sense.

I was just giving you a hard time and poking, in fun, at Sony.

[j_factor]

I'm no analyst...buuuuut, here's how my theory goes. Regardless the amount of success the Go finds, it has a unique place in the market. In the sense that, in theory, Sony wouldn't have to front a lot of money to get it out there. They should be able to fund it with investment capital that's been allocated toward R&D. So I doubt, in my humble opinion, that Sony is expecting a great deal of retail success from the Go. All that I expect to be gained from its release is knowledge. Where would they plan to use the experience gained? Perhaps their next console. Not only would BlueRay require too much HDD space, but the PS3 has already had a hard time finding any solid ground...so if I am right, the PSP is the only logical place for Sony to play this game. I mean, I think they're reaching the end of its life...so it isn't a great risk. I don't know, I'm just guessing here but it makes sense to me.

As for the 360 games, it isn't much of a risk at all. Either you go buy it on disc, or you download it. Either way, whatever people download will make for an educational experience for Microsoft. This is where it ties in with the Go. Looking toward the future.

Sure, it's not much of a risk. But if it doesn't pan out, I don't see them continuing in that direction with their next console. I think the purpose for both of these is to test the waters of digital distribution, and their success, or lack thereof, will dictate future plans.

[Icarus Moonsight]

The first console of a generation never ends up being #1. 360, Dreamcast, 3DO, Turbografx, none of those were #1 systems. You have to go back to the NES, and that's a very special case, with the crash (and somewhat debatable, since 7800's were sold on a limited basis in '84). Hell, the VCS came after the Channel-F. So given that, why would Sony be in a rush to come out first?

Because everyone seems to forget the Dreamcast even existed and view the PS2 as a first out winner? Just a theory.

[backguard]

No optical media option...I suppose that means downloads and cartridges (flash memory)?

[Nature Boy]

The first console of a generation never ends up being #1. 360, Dreamcast, 3DO, Turbografx, none of those were #1 systems. You have to go back to the NES, and that's a very special case, with the crash (and somewhat debatable, since 7800's were sold on a limited basis in '84). Hell, the VCS came after the Channel-F. So given that, why would Sony be in a rush to come out first?

I'd argue that the 360 would not have enjoyed the success it has if it *wasn't* first out of the gate though, which makes it worth it in MS's eyes (and potentially Sony's looking towards PS4). The whole "who is #1" garbage is mostly fanboy gibberish.

[SegaAges]

I'd argue that the 360 would not have enjoyed the success it has if it *wasn't* first out of the gate though, which makes it worth it in MS's eyes (and potentially Sony's looking towards PS4). The whole "who is #1" garbage is mostly fanboy gibberish.

Not according to sales figures

[Nature Boy]

It seems to be historically proven that systems that are earliest out of the gate for each generation rarely become king of the castle.

The reason for going first *isn't* to become king of the castle necessarily though. It's to maximize the number of units sold.

Other factors come into a purchasing decision to be sure (like price), but when your target market is looking to buy a console and you're the only 'next gen' machine currently available, you'll sell more units by default.

Imagine the PS3 and 360 going to market after the Wii. That absolutely would have affected 360 sales. They just wouldn't have sold as many units, because some consumers would have bought a Wii instead.