I predict carts are back next gen...

[boatofcar]

There's a certain part of me that would like to see carts come back. But I want real carts, Neo-Geo or NES-size carts. Big honkin' things. If we're talking about SD cards, what's the point of having that over optical media? You're as likely to lose something that small as you are to scratch a disc.

[The Shawn]

Hell yeah!!!

Well...not really


*Me dusts off my Johnny Horton 8-tracks and waits for the end...

[Hep038]

Bingo! If you can absorb the initial cost of setting up fabrication, the more you build the cheaper per unit. You only have to build factories once. Maintenance has a cost too, but it's minor vs erecting the production infrastructure initially. It's not economically impossible at all. It has pluses and minuses, sure. But so does Blu-Ray. The production cost of a flash media port is MUCH less. It's a balancing act. Spend a buck or two more per unit of media, but save tens of if not a hundred dollars per unit on hardware... There is much to consider.

But if a company like San disk is not making $2 SD flash cards , how can a company like Nintendo do it? I agree that the system reliability and cost will go down, but if they switch to SD carts expect the price of games to jump. I am not arguing that SD carts are a bad idea, I am just saying their is a limit to how cheap you can make a SD cart. I just do not see it approaching the cost of DVD/Blue Ray.

[portnoyd]

I won't say there is no limit to how cheap they can make a SD card. However:

Video game sales were $11 billion for 2008. Let's be generous and say each title cost $50. That's 220 million games sold. So we're Nintendo. Based on current hardware sales with the Wii and DS, you have 60% of the gaming pie which would be 132 million games for your two systems a year. So let's assume we have that buying power going into the next generation and the Wii2 and DS2 will share the same media.

With numbers that high, not only would manufacturing costs be in the toilet, you'd also have to factor in the different flash memory manufacturers and how they'd be salivating at the thought of getting that contract. It's guarenteed volume for the life of the system. Even at one cent margin per card, they'd still end up with 1.32 million profit a year.

So Nintendo holds out for lowest bid wins and the price gets driven down further as each company pisses on the other to win the contract. The new volume would be a noticeable addition to market share as well as notoriety to the company itself. But none of this is even the main concern - when the winner announces that they have partnered with Nintendo, their stock will jump dramatically which is far more important than actually making the sale.

Keeping in mind that this is all fuzzy stats - I gleaned what I could from vgchartz.com and an article about 2008 game sales.

[Icarus Moonsight]

There is also the fact that it does not need to be as cheap as optical to be a more profitable avenue. Cost =/= value.

[j_factor]

Cost isn't the sole factor. I think if flash memory approaches (not necessarily bests) optical disc cost, it becomes very viable. I mean, back when we did have cartridge systems, there were cheaper formats available.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Ever get the feeling that you're repeating yourself over and over?

I'm done.

[jonnyutah]

this is the last gen we will use a physical medium. blu ray is on the way out.blu ray will die off just as cd's did. basicly the same thing that happend to the cd(digital download/mp3)

so basicly next gen you won't have to ever leave your couch to buy a new game.

[Buns34]

You could be right about downloads being huge in the future, but Blue-Ray is not going anywhere anytime soon.

[unwinddesign]

I don't see download being a threat in the next gen. Why? It sucks for consumers.

Do you see the bullshit they tried to put up on Xbox on Demand? $30 for Assassin's Creed? GTFO, Microsoft

$30 for Bioshock? Um, no.

The prices aren't competitive. If they try to go download only, they will be blackballed y Amazon/Wal*Mart/Gamestop. Don't forget that the retail outlets do a lot of advertising for them too, with magazine ads etc. They will be pissed off if it goes download only. Download cards are a possibility, but why the fuck would I go to a store to get one of those when I can get the game from my couch?

The second problem is that a lot of these games, especially on PS3, are 10GB+. My connection was 15MBPS download -- pretty fast, not the fastest, but better than most -- and it took about 3 hours to download the Matrix in HD (6.3 gigs or so) over the XBL marketplace. The download stopped numerous times without my input. The process sucked.

Digital distribution is not there, because people like having shit. Even if they don't collect, they like to exchange their dollars for a tangible item. A $1 song doesn't really compare, mainly because no one ever gave a shit about the single's artwork. Album sales are down. People don't want virtual albums. I sure as fuck don't. I don't want virtual $60 games, either, and I won't buy them. If you don't like the game, too bad. You're fucked. I've downloaded 50 XBLA games; I had to stop buying them, because I would get duped by fun demos only to realize that the complete game sucked ass. Luckily, most of those are the price of a sandwich...

[udisi]

you forget all the other things that are sold by retailers that have a much better profit margin than the games themselves, like controllers, strategy guides, etc. Hell they could sell download cards, like they do for wii points and such. Just because them actual game media could leave the store doesn't mean everything that makes money would.

If the systems are cheaper to produce without optical drives, and they can make the machines smaller and lighter, they don't necessarily need to pass that on to the consumer. They could cut the retailer in for a bigger cut, making systems an actual money maker too.

The benefits for the console producers to go digital are far superior to any other option. While the SD card sounds intriguing and I believe viable, I don't see it's benefits out waying going digital.

Optical media is in fact the cheapest to produce and will remain that way, but the loss of sales to the used market and piracy, raise it's overall cost, and things will change to bring more say back to the producers.

SD would not solve the used game market problem for the producers, which is a big problem for them. It would help the piracy problem a little, but going digital would solve both problems.