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Thread: I predict carts are back next gen...

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    More than new carts, I'd bet on new optical technology for the next gen. Maybe mini-Blu Rays, like how the GameCube used mini DVDs.

    The first download-only gaming system is the PSP Go, right?
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    Quote Originally Posted by backguard View Post
    Digital distribution sounds like a huge pain to me. Downloading a typical PS3 game would take what...half a day on most broadband connections? Maybe more?
    Not necessarily. Compression technology, advances in broadband and the fact that you can keep downloading the game in the background while you play the earlier levels make it actually very practical. Heck, there are already some very large games available on PSN with more on the way. One of the major reasons that some games on the PS3 are so huge is the large number of high resolution pre-rendered movies and cut scenes. Remove those and the game itself is not that big.

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    I think discs are here to stay, at least for the time being. As far as digital distrobution is concerned, it's nice that's it's there for the people that want it, but I'm not interested myself so I could care less. All digital would be terrible anyway, I mean seriously, think about how often games that are available digitally drop in price or are on sale? Unless you're using Steam, it's just not gonna happen.

    I don't think the PSP Go is gonna do well enough to warrant an all digital console, and if there ever is an all digital console, I wouldn't buy it personally, regardless of what is available on it, and what happens if all the consoles in a generation go digital? Well, then I guess I'd just be finished with modern gaming at that point.


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    Also, will parent's be happy about having to worry about their kid(s) downloading 20 games on the credit card you saved in the account? I don't like the idea at all. One thing's for sure, that's the end of the collector hobby for that generation of games forward, as well as businesses like Game Stop (boo hoo I know).
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    even funnier, if the big three all went digital, maybe a little guy will come out with a physical media system to compete and it turns out to be the new #1?
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    Quote Originally Posted by backguard View Post
    Digital distribution sounds like a huge pain to me. Downloading a typical PS3 game would take what...half a day on most broadband connections? Maybe more?
    You must have a terrible ISP. It took me, what, maybe 5 minutes to download and install the Batman Arkham Asylum demo.

    Either that or you're running your PS3 under a wireless connection. Stop using wireless. It sucks balls, I figured that out awhile ago. Run wired, play Unreal Tournament 3 with 16 players and you'll have hardly any lag, or 12 players or less, no noticeable lag.
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    It's possible to make storage devices that don't rotate the recording media like a disc but which aren't a traditional "cartridge" media (i.e. have moving parts), in any case it doesn't matter much 'cuz digital distribution = lower costs for everybody and a big roadblock to piracy as well.

    I am stoked for SDXC cards though; I reached 1/4 the capacity of one of my SDHC cards (and 1/4 the possible length of a video) recording video for just over 5 minutes today O_o

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    No...but I would be love the hell out of it. As long as they were at least the size of a Genny cart. Damn that would be cool.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Greg2600 View Post
    Also, will parent's be happy about having to worry about their kid(s) downloading 20 games on the credit card you saved in the account? I don't like the idea at all. One thing's for sure, that's the end of the collector hobby for that generation of games forward, as well as businesses like Game Stop (boo hoo I know).
    There's a lot of things parents have to worry about nowadays, including saved credit card info on sites like Amazon, pay-per-view and text solicitations to buy things. Ultimately, you just have to trust your kids and maybe password protect stuff if it really becomes a problem.

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    Considering I was just playing Final Soldier off an SD card in my Wii... I don't see why this is such a big poo poo. I'm sure that if, somehow, this does indeed come to pass the format and form factor will be proprietary, and if anyone is going to do it it's definitely going to be Nintendo. They're the only one with a track record of making success from and money off seemingly silly ideas.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Ice View Post
    I agree.

    If they make carts again they can modify their DRM on the fly. As opposed to discs which are not rewritable. This will give them more control over "piracy".

    It's less wear and tear on systems without a disc spinning around, which will reduce the number of systems returned for maintenance.

    Leaving the optical drive out will decrease the cost of manufacturing the systems.

    Forget about watching movies. Every time someone buys a $20 movie means they're not buying a $60 game. Every two hours a kid is watching a movie is 2 hours he's not buying stuff to download.

    "Digital distribution" will just remain a component of the experience. They will not move to an all digital model...what is to stop them from doing that right now? They still need to sell premium $60 games at retail.

    I think Nintendo will do it.
    Add in bulk manufacturing costs as mentioned earlier, and you got your winner right here. Also, Game cases can be shrunk dramatically (to DS size for all) giving retailers 2x shelf space which they will undoubtedly support.

    The only negative I see is doing this would kill any chance of a next gen system having backwards compatibility. But that's what addon drives and digital downloads can help.

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    Quote Originally Posted by portnoyd View Post
    Add in bulk manufacturing costs as mentioned earlier, and you got your winner right here. Also, Game cases can be shrunk dramatically (to DS size for all) giving retailers 2x shelf space which they will undoubtedly support.

    The only negative I see is doing this would kill any chance of a next gen system having backwards compatibility. But that's what addon drives and digital downloads can help.
    I don't think the console manufacturers are as friendly to the concept of backwards compatibility as they used to be.

    Sony dropped PS2 B/C out of the PS3 completely. They fiddled with it by having hardware B/C, then software emulation, then none at all. It'd be nice if the rumored PS3 slim brought it back, but I'm not holding my breath. Another example on Sony's part is the PSP Go. It ditches the UMD format completely, relying on digital downloads to your memory stick.

    Microsoft seemed all too eager to drop the original Xbox like a bad habit. Because of radically different hardware architecture, near 100% B/C with original Xbox titles is a pipe dream. It would seem they're more interested in making $$$ of those titles by packaging them as Live downloads to be stored on the HDD.

    Nintendo is the most "friendly" when it comes to B/C it seems, on the surface anyway. The Wii is either 100% B/C or near that for all Gamecube games and accessories but the reality is it's hardware architecture is a GC with a 2.5x increase in power, Nintendo themselves even admitting this. Their handhelds fared better in terms of B/C until the DS came onto the scene. The original DS did allow for GBA B/C but not GB or GBC. Now the DSi has removed the GBA B/C.

    As for the topic on hand, with the advances in SD cards/memory sticks, it'd be nice if they went back to carts. I'd like it for no other reason than there's less moving parts in my system that have the chance to malfunction. I've had to replace Xbox, PS2, and Cube because the drives on each of them started to go out. My new Xbox is starting to do the same thing as the old one and I've held off buying the next gen systems because they don't appear any more reliable than the previous generation for the most part.
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    I really can't all 3 consoles going all digital in the next generation, maybe when we get to the 10th... It'll be a very risky move for which ever company tries it, and if it backfires they'd be a bit buggered. I guess the psp go will be the initial proving ground.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swamperon View Post
    I really can't all 3 consoles going all digital in the next generation, maybe when we get to the 10th... It'll be a very risky move for which ever company tries it, and if it backfires they'd be a bit buggered. I guess the psp go will be the initial proving ground.
    No, I agree that we probably have one more generation of disc based consoles forthcoming. After that, however, with broadband penetration at near 100% of gamers, I seriously doubt that any recorded media will be used for games. The PS3 and 360 will probably still be available for younger and newer gamers, so I suppose budget disc games will keep coming out for them down the road. There is absolutely no evidence that anyone is talking about going back to carts on the home console side. There is really no reason to do it and discs will always be cheaper, even if only by pennies, which can be huge when you are pressing millions of copies.

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    This prediction is a "drastic" change in content delivery.

    Console developers don't like drastic changes in content delivery, and the general public like them even less.

    Baby steps and adherence to existing formats and industry trends are what we'll likely see in the future.

    While I can see the logic in your prediction, I don't agree that we'll see it in the immediate next generation (if ever) ... and I don't think any of the current console devs have a clue what they're doing any further than the immediate future, not that they're "clueless", rather content delivery has so many varied avenues currently that they're still figuring out what would be the most profitable, effective and stable in our current global economy.

    Expect to see more systems with hybrid content formats/storage moving forward. (DVD + Broadband + USB Slots + HDDs)
    Last edited by Frankie_Says_Relax; 08-14-2009 at 11:16 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankie_Says_Relax View Post
    Expect to see more systems with hybrid content formats/storage moving forward. (DVD + Broadband + USB Slots + HDDs)
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    I think I mentioned it in another thread on this subject. Holographic Data Cubes.

    Oh, I guess that is an optical medium though. But still more cartridge like than a disc.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rickstilwell1 View Post
    even funnier, if the big three all went digital,
    If all Three went digital I think it would kill the video game market altogether. I dont really think nintendo would go digital beacause they are trying to sell to the casual non gamer and older folks, half of them can barley turn on a computer let alone download or search for one to download.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Howie6925 View Post
    If all Three went digital I think it would kill the video game market altogether. I dont really think nintendo would go digital beacause they are trying to sell to the casual non gamer and older folks, half of them can barley turn on a computer let alone download or search for one to download.
    The casual market is all about downloadable games though. Popcap, Big Fish, etc...
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    Digital distribution is growing within segments of the gaming populace to epic proportions.

    Devices like the iPhone, and gaming consoles of this generation Wii, 360 and PS3 (and in smaller cases PS3 and DSi) all make substantial amounts of income via DLC games and content.

    Is it enough for any company to drop the axe on brick & mortar distribution of games in the immediate next generation? I don't think so.

    Well, unless you're talking about the iPhone, because that's never had physical media AND is probably the biggest money maker of the bunch.

    The road ahead for this type of thing is complex and riddled with obstacles ...

    I'm always interested to see where the road leads, but I don't have a hell of a clue presently which way it's going to branch or what the endgame will be ... what I do expect is for companies to experiment with things like PSP Go.

    Remember, the XBOX Live Arcade Marketplace was all but a content distribution experiment added to the XBL service in it's infancy ... but now it's practically the life-blood of the console and has spawned similar services across the entire industry.

    Whatever happens ... cartridge or CD, digital or physical distribution ... I'm just happy to be along for the ride and open-minded enough to roll with whatever they throw at me.
    Last edited by Frankie_Says_Relax; 08-14-2009 at 01:22 PM.
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