It's been 5 years, and no ones talking 'next gen' yet.

[WCP]

So what? Console manufacturers have no incentive to remove optical drives and in fact, their lack of reliability over time is actually to their benefit since the warranties on consoles typically expire well before an optical drive will die. The manufacturers aren't opposed to optical drives or media per se, their interest is in having direct access to customers without a retailer intervention. Any type of protection or file limitation which can be done with a thumb drive can be done cheaper on an optical disc. I don't know if you recall this, but Blockbuster actually had a prototype of a DVD disc that locked itself after a single play through in the early 2000s and similar technologies exist today. I agree that once downloading becomes the dominant delivery format, optical drives may go away, but it's not gonna happen in this upcoming generation and I doubt that thumbsticks or a similar removable media will be the replacement.

Putting an optical drive in a system costs money and also makes the device larger/bulkier. Just look at netbooks. No optical drive, and they can be incredibly small. If the 360 had no need for an optical drive, it would be quite a bit smaller.

I just think that if Sony and Microsoft can stretch this cycle out all the way till about 2014 (which sounds crazy I know...), then they will say F U to the idea of having an optical drive. Especially Microsoft. If they had an optical drive in their next system, it would have to be Blu Ray. They would like to avoid that if at all possible, and I think digital download is the way to do that. Obviously, because some people aren't going to be able to download these gigantic files, they are going to have to find a way to service those customers as well, and downloading kiosks or something will be the way they do it.

If MS releases a console prior to November 2014, then maybe they will still have to have some type of drive, but if they can hold out until late 2014, I think they can actually get away with it. It would be a bold move for sure, but I think they just might take the chance.

[Gameguy]

That's way different. DS sells games on cards; the post you quoted was talking about digital distribution using USB flash drives (secondarily to having the games on hard drives).

Either way there will be piracy. A situation like the SNES where you need a special, uncommon, and somewhat expensive copier that's specific to the system, is not going to happen again.

That's kind of why i said they should use a custom type of flash card instead of a standard USB flash drive or a common off the shelf one that's used for plenty of devices. I don't come across bootleg DS games in the wild too often, I know that they're out there though this was mostly before the re-writable flash cards were common for the DS. I know that there are plenty of bootleg cartridges out there so piracy will always be out there, but with discs there's really more of it. I come across burned discs all the time in thrift stores. Either for video games, software, DVDs, CDs, etc. I hardly see bootleg carts for any system anywhere, the odd one every few months but there's nowhere near the amount compared to burned discs I see.

Even ignoring piracy, it would reduce the amount of used games available as people can overwrite the cards that have games they don't like. With discs they can only be sold or thrown out/given away. Since there's plenty of people who wait to buy games used(or just rent them), they'll be forced to buy the game new as they won't be able to find used copies too easily, people will either keep the game or overwrite it. The key will be to make the games themselves cheap to buy, the flash cards to write them on will be the moneymaker. It will also force games to be good, if they're bad they won't get people to buy more flash cards so they won't be available for long. Less crap out there.

I'm wondering, would it be possible for the flash cards to be written in a custom format so they can't be read with a computer? Kind of like you couldn't read an IBM formatted floppy disk on a Mac back in the day.

[j_factor]

That's kind of why i said they should use a custom type of flash card instead of a standard USB flash drive or a common off the shelf one that's used for plenty of devices. I don't come across bootleg DS games in the wild too often, I know that they're out there though this was mostly before the re-writable flash cards were common for the DS. I know that there are plenty of bootleg cartridges out there so piracy will always be out there, but with discs there's really more of it. I come across burned discs all the time in thrift stores. Either for video games, software, DVDs, CDs, etc. I hardly see bootleg carts for any system anywhere, the odd one every few months but there's nowhere near the amount compared to burned discs I see.

I think this is more of an advantage for discs, actually. I've seen countless bootleg GBA games. They even commonly turn up at legitimate retailers like Gamestop. Many are very good fakes, and the untrained eye can't tell. Even with the amount of piracy Playstation and Dreamcast had/have, never have I ever seen an illegal copy dressed up to look like the real thing. There's plenty of downloading, or swapping burns, etc., but you don't see burned discs being passed off as legitimate.

Even ignoring piracy, it would reduce the amount of used games available as people can overwrite the cards that have games they don't like. With discs they can only be sold or thrown out/given away. Since there's plenty of people who wait to buy games used(or just rent them), they'll be forced to buy the game new as they won't be able to find used copies too easily, people will either keep the game or overwrite it. The key will be to make the games themselves cheap to buy, the flash cards to write them on will be the moneymaker. It will also force games to be good, if they're bad they won't get people to buy more flash cards so they won't be available for long. Less crap out there.

I don't see this type of scheme happening. Either it will be digital distribution with no (legitimate) used game sales, or it will be normal physical releases, or a combination of the two.

I'm wondering, would it be possible for the flash cards to be written in a custom format so they can't be read with a computer? Kind of like you couldn't read an IBM formatted floppy disk on a Mac back in the day.

Sure, but there's always a way of getting around it. The only game system in history that you can't pirate for today is PS3, and we all know that won't last forever. Really if piracy is the #1 concern, they should just use some sort of proprietary format. It won't keep piracy away forever, but it will delay it. It took quite a while for Gamecube piracy to become doable.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

You pay $90/mo for dial-up?

You either have serious reading comprehension skills, or your being a smartass. Either way, this is pointless.

[WCP]

I seriously doubt that Microsoft or Sony, will switch to SD cards or USB thumb sticks as a replacement for disks. The whole idea is to kill the used game market. Switching from one type of physical media (disks), to another (thumb sticks, flash cards), doesn't solve their primary issue.

The only reason they will even have a usb thumb stick (or other similar device), is for the people that are unable to download the games directly to the built in hard drive via their internet connection. The usb thumb stick (or whatever device they end up using), will simply be an accessory. Not a new form of media. It will be like a transfer kit. It will allow these people to go to a retail location where they can have the game they are interested in, copied to the device, and then they will take the device home, plug it into their console, and transfer the game onto the consoles hard drive.

The whole concept is that the game can only be played when it resides on the hard drive, and not in any kind of media that is removable. This way, they can kill the used game market, and the rental market, and increase their profit margins.

Also, you can bet your bottom dollar, that whatever type of device they decide to use to do the transferring (thumb stick, SD card, whatever...), it will be made in some type of proprietary way, and they will do their damndest to make sure that it can't be used to pirate the games somehow.

[Rob2600]

Am I the only one who hates the term "thumb drive" or "thumb stick?" It's a memory stick.

Regarding high speed internet access, for $20 a month, I get 6-12 Mbps down, 2 Mbps up with Comcast. For $40 a month, it's 16-20 Mbps down, 3 Mbps up. Those are the bundled prices with cable TV service. For cable internet alone, the prices would be around $45 and $65 respectively. Still doable.

For $90 a month, I'd expect a sustained 50 Mbps down and 25 Mbps up, for real.

[jb143]

Am I the only one who hates the term "thumb drive" or "thumb stick?" It's a memory stick.

ThumbDrive is a trademarked name for a particular companies drive. I think "USB flash drive" is the defacto term. And "memory stick" is a Sony/SanDisk name for their non-USB flash memory cards. Just to clear things up...

And one of the problems with flash memory is that they can only be written/re-written so many times.

Edit-
I looked it up, Trek Technology was one of the first companies to sell them and called their model "ThumbDrive" so that explains why the term is a genericized trademark like Kleenex.

And my parents live out in the country and thier only option for "high speed" internet is the USB thing though verizon. It's faster than dialup but still really slow.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

Memory stick is what Sony calls their flash media. I like the term memory stick better, but it's more confusing, so I default to thumb drive. Blame Sony.

For me it's either a 26k dial-up connection or satellite. It's not like I have a choice in the matter. 26k is not a speed that works for today's internet in any way.

Edit: jb143 beat me to it.

[Orion Pimpdaddy]

Not possible. There are many sections of the country where high speed internet isn't available.

The newest PSP is download only, isn't it?

[Rob2600]

Thanks for pointing that out. I have no problem with "flash drive." That's the term I'll use from now on.

Sorry to hear about your internet situation. $90 a month...ouch. What speeds do you get with your satellite connection?

[TheDomesticInstitution]

Thanks for pointing that out. I have no problem with "flash drive." That's the term I'll use from now on.

Sorry to hear about your internet situation. $90 a month...ouch. What speeds do you get with your satellite connection?

Flash drive, I knew there was a term for it I forgot. I agree, that's the best way to describe it.

Well, I was slightly off, our internet is $80 before taxes are figured in. Which still brings it close.

Speeds & packages with Wild Blue internet.


Package______$__________Download_______UP_________ _Monthly Bandwidth Limitations

Value_______49.95________512kbps_______128kbps____ __7.5GB Down/2.3GB Upload
Select______69.95________1.0mbps_______200kbps____ __12gb Down/3GB Upload
Pro_________79.95________1.5mbps_______256kbps____ __17GB Down/5GB Upload


If you exceed the Monthly bandwidth limitations or FAP (Fair Access Policy), as it's known, they cap your rate until your usage rates are about 70% of the total GB limitation. When they cap your connection, 26k dialup looks like DSL- it's that slow. And the way they figure how much you used is done in a odd way too. It isn't figured from the 1st day of the month, it's called a rolling 30 days FAP, where they look at the prior usage on the same day last month and subtract it from todays total. It's a little hard to explain, my girlfriend still doesn't exactly understand it. But yeah, we use the "Pro" one. When our connection is capped it takes about a week or 2 to return to normal satellite speeds. And what the figures above down tell you is there is a "lag" in the connection, which effectively keeps you from gaming online. It's weird when I check my bank account, it takes about 5 minutes... which I guess has something to do with the lag and security restrictions.

[Nature Boy]

I don't see how it would reduce piracy. It's not harder to copy data to a hard drive than to burn a disc. Sure, they'll employ a good copy-protection scheme, but it'll be cracked. Piracy is rampant on the iPhone.

I don't see how you can think burning a disc would *ever* be easier than simply copying a file to a Hard Drive? If I'm pirating something I'll take copying to a HD *any* day over having to burn discs for it. One is drag and drop. the other involves making sure your burner software has the right settings, you use the right media, etc, etc.

If I'm a manufacturer I stay away from flash media and the like and I stick with discs without even blinking.

[jb143]

The newest PSP is download only, isn't it?

What's the largest file size for a game though. It would be bad if the time to download a game was greater than its battery life.

[Rob2600]

I understand the 30 day rolling cap. For any given 30 day period, you can't exceed the cap. Makes sense.

The cheapest plan you listed would be useless to me. The middle plan would be tolerable, and the plan you pay for is good enough for most uses. Those upload speeds are torture though. Damn.

Now I'm thankful for the lousy 2 Mbps of upload bandwith I get through Comcast.

Your 30 day cap isn't too horrendously restrictive, but when I look at your provider's specs as a whole, it just doesn't add up to $80 a month. I can't believe they get away with those rip-off rates. I feel your pain.

[kedawa]

Satellite internet isn't suitable for gaming at all. The latency is absurdly high.
I'd rather get internet through a tethered cell phone than deal with that crap.

[Bojay1997]

The newest PSP is download only, isn't it?

Yes and Sony continues to sell a PSP model with a UMD drive and third parties are talking about making an external UMD drive for the PSP Go. Also, the sales numbers for the Go have been horrible worldwide.