When I first started collecting SNES games, I noticed that the prices reached the "lowest valley" in my area between 2002-2005. At least in my experience, it seems that collecting can meet a sweet spot about two console generations behind the current generation. During that time, XBOX, PS2, and Gamecube were all the rage, and Gamestops were discontinuing carrying SNES games and the like. As you might expect, the masses were interested in the current consoles. Many still played their consoles from the previous generation, but going back two generations was definitely considering "not cool." This made for a field day for me, as people considered a lot of SNES and Genesis games to be worthless. I never found so much SNES stuff in such abundance or at such cheap prices.
This is comparable today where it seems that very few people are caught playing their Playstations and N64s nowadays, at least in reference to the general populous. As I walk into thrift stores, I see bare Playstations and N64s piled up all the time. Retro gamers aside, playing those systems is reaching the height of their respective "uncool" phases. You can't trade in Playstation, N64, and now more recently GBA games at Gamestop, and most people that aren't in the know end up junking them into a thrift store. At pawn shops, a lot of PS, N64, and GBA games go for pennies.
However, going back to the SNES collecting heydays between 2002-2005, even then I knew that the NES collecting market was getting out-of-hand. Hell, it had been out of hand for years. Prices on eBay were just outrageous and it was clear to everyone that the SNES was going to go down the same path given enough time. Flash forward to the present and that is very much the case. SNES collecting hasn't reached the same pinnacle of insanity that NES collecting has, but it has been skyrocketing as of recently and I don't think it is going to slow down any time soon. Now I look for my remaining 78 SNES games I need for the collection and think to myself, "Oh how I wish I had bought this game back in the day before the SNES collecting bubble exploded." I can only assume that prices are going to keep on going up, especially considering the trends of the past few years.
Considering this, you have to think that there is a collecting "sweet spot," when most people view the systems and games as being out-dated, yet it is a time right before they become more "collectible." Using this theory, when will we see the sweet spot for GBA, N64, and Playstation? Or are we already there?
In my eyes, there has never been a better time to collect for PS and N64. Games are so cheap and in such abundance. GBA games need a little more time to dip down, but in my estimation, shortly after the NGP drops and more people buy the 3DS, the prices for GBA games will drop. Portables are a little different though and they don't exactly fit well with my above theory. They are phased out slower and look at regular Gameboy games, which have always seemed to sell decently...
So are we at the bottom of the PS or N64 price range right now? Will the bottom hit in a few more years before prices start to climb and collectibility ensues? Can you see N64 games and PS games getting even cheaper than they are now?
Let me know what you think, and thank you,
Chris