Target took a big hit about a year ago when they got hacked, and it was unsafe to use credit and debit in their stores for about a month. Totally not their fault, but it took away a huge revenue stream and damaged customer trust fot awhile. Also, like you pointed out, they really overreached in expansion when they decided to get into the grocery business before building the logistical structure to support it. Grocery, especially fresh grocery, is regulated so differently for shipping and storage compared to their core business, and in one huge swoop they had to build a ton of new distribution centers, buy trucks and outsource additional transportation and fueling, take on company-wide building and remodeling costs to support it, create new signing and labeling programs, and pay to train their management staff in food safety all in just a matter of a couple of years since their approach wasn't gradual. It's a marvel that they aren't in worse shape, really.

I don't think they're super at-risk just yet, though, for a couple of reasons. One, they dominate market share in fashion apprel for discount retail. While apparel is nowhere near grocery for volume, which Wal-Mart owns, it is super high profit margin, and that has kept them from bleeding out, and also why they've refocused their recent advertising on apparel. Two, their customer experience tracks way, way better in all female demographics for cleanliness and presentation compared to the competition. Wal-Mart tried to compete a few years ago by removing all action-alley stackbase features in order to attract that business, and while customer experience ratings did climb a bit, the sales dropped severely from the unused impulse space that the expanded capacity endcaps could not replace in volume of revenue or capacity, not to mention that buyers continued to purchase featurea in formats such a large shippers that the fixtures no longer supported, creating additional storage and labor cost issues for merchandise handling. So, they ended up ceding that to Target, which is still to this day the #1 experience for soccer moms aesthetically.