Few would argue that Sega's decision to launch the Saturn early was a major screw up. For months, developers and retailers were working toward a September 2, 1995 release date, confident that they had the summer of 1995 to put the finishing touches on planned launch games and make plans to have stock on that September date. However, as many of us know, Sega robbed third party developers of those final 114 days of development time and chose to give the Saturn a surprise limited release on May 11, 1995. Retailers that didn't get any Saturns that day were pissed and some chose not to do business with Sega for months or even years after that. Developers were left with games that were unfinished on May 11 and the Saturn's launch lineup sucked.

Would the planned launch date have helped? It would have allowed for a much better first impression, with a wider range and better quality of launch titles. The supply of consoles at launch probably would have been adequate, and perhaps they could have launched it at a slightly lower price than $399 - probably not the $299 of the PlayStation, but maybe $349. It would have put more distance between the launch of the 32X and Saturn. Would it have made a difference in the long run?

I would guess it would make a significant difference, with the PlayStation still winning the 1995 holiday season but the Saturn as a strong second, probably selling at least at half the rate of the PlayStation, creating a ripple effect that would have increased third party support and the system's lifespan. Lifetime sales of the Saturn would have perhaps doubled from 9.26 million to 16-20 million. It's possible that the Saturn could have held out long enough that the Dreamcast could have launched with a DVD player, making it competitive with Sony. There would probably be a 50-50 chance of Sega still being in the console market in 2019, competing alongside Sony and Nintendo (it's possible Microsoft would have still entered the market as well).