Cheapassgamer predicts video game crash!!! THIS YEAR!!

[kai123]

All because best buy is clearing out stock on games. If the industry was going to crash wouldn't they price all of their remaining stock at $5?

http://www.cheapassgamer.com/forum/v...er=asc&start=0

[Half Japanese]

Eh, I think a crash is being a little pessimistic, but the amount of games coming out is, in my opinion anyway, a bad thing. There is such thing as TOO MUCH competition, and that's what we saw during the holiday season. Good games like Sphinx, I-Ninja, Metal Arms, Beyond Good & Evil (to name a few) that would have been fair to good sellers at any other time of the year tanked because there was simply too much out there cluttering the market. I also realize that there are now massive development costs involved with making a game, but the $50 price point doesn't really cut it for a lot of people, resulting in lots of dramatic price drops that hurt both the retailer and the publisher/developer. These factors combine to squelch a lot of the creativivy we could be seeing in the game industry, instead we see many more clones of the staples, the likes of which Sega, Nintendo, EA and Square-Enix are more than happy to keep pushing out at a rapid-fire pace. If nothing else, the games industry needs to pace itself or it's going to become a tired cliche of the same genres and franchises, a road it's already well used to.

[Duncan]

Lots of doom-n-gloom on that forum...I realize the market is a touch stagnant right now, but we're right on the verge of another technology shift too. PS3 and (maybe) the GameCube's successor will most likely appear by next year, so I'm thinking the developers are kinda in limbo at the moment.

If anything, I'm a little concerned that Microsoft hasn't got more on the release schedule - everything's about Halo 2, but there doesn't seem to be anything else on tap.

Maybe we'll lose one of the current competitors, but that's all I can see.

[Ed Oscuro]

I'm afraid I have to agree with Dr. Justin Ramone about too much competition...game companies have to make money somewhere.

If there was to be a crash, that'd suck...horribly. Thank goodness for Microsoft and XNA looking out for devs, huh? x_x (let's hope that and other initiatives pull through sooner, instead of later!)

[zmweasel]

Lots of doom-n-gloom on that forum...I realize the market is a touch stagnant right now, but we're right on the verge of another technology shift too. PS3 and (maybe) the GameCube's successor will most likely appear by next year, so I'm thinking the developers are kinda in limbo at the moment.

The GameCube follow-up might debut next year, but the PS3 ain't showing up 'til 2006 at the earliest. A primary topic of Sony's E3 press conference was the company's intent to extend the hardware lifecycle from five to ten years, thus allowing Sony and its third parties more time to recoup their ever-increasing R&D costs. Launching the PS3 in '05 would contradict Sony's stated goal.

If anything, I'm a little concerned that Microsoft hasn't got more on the release schedule - everything's about Halo 2, but there doesn't seem to be anything else on tap.

No doubt. Conker and Fable ain't gonna carry the Xbox.

-- Z.

[spaceFarmer]

Wow I can't believe I read that whole thread! The poster made some good points. You can’t write it all off as doom and gloom. I don’t think there will be a 1984 sized crash, but I see some merit in what he said. This year I have seen two independent shops go under in my city.

[lendelin]

New videogame crash? One comment: nonsense!

A predicted videogame crash is the gaming equivalent of Hoover's cameo appearance every four years in election campaign speeches.

The market is saturated for sure, and not only for a couple of months now; but the market reacts, and so will publishers/developers; in the end, there will be lesser games than we see now, and some smaller development houses will go out of business.

[ubersaurus]

Lots of doom-n-gloom on that forum...I realize the market is a touch stagnant right now, but we're right on the verge of another technology shift too. PS3 and (maybe) the GameCube's successor will most likely appear by next year, so I'm thinking the developers are kinda in limbo at the moment.

If anything, I'm a little concerned that Microsoft hasn't got more on the release schedule - everything's about Halo 2, but there doesn't seem to be anything else on tap.

Maybe we'll lose one of the current competitors, but that's all I can see.

I dunno, they got KOTOR 2 coming, but that's not til next year.

[davidleeroth]

I wouldn't mid a new crash as that seems to be the only way the companies will change their ways.

I mean who buys new games anyway, I don't remember buying any new, full price releases last year. And how many games were released last year? 500? Come on, 0/500 is pretty bad.
This year I will buy two, Gradius 5 and Gran Turismo 4 (it's coming this year Sony, right?) others can wait. These buys won't keep the 200? or so publishers on the industry.
If there's already so many great games on the bargain bin, how come they expect I'll shed $50 (60€ where I live) for practically the same game?

At the same time the profit margin for retailers is lower than ever, competition is more widespread and financial risks are bigger. If your products don't keep retailers happy (make them a buck or two), they will drop off your wagon. It's that simple.

Hell, I've got games for a few years need, just provide me with electricity and I will play.

[YoshiM]

Crash? Nah. It's too big to fall. A trim-down? I can see that. I've seen stores like Wal-Mart that have games belching out of the seams of the display cases. Heck, a fairly new Super Wal-Mart in Plymouth has 1/4 of a 4 way aisle display devoted to clearance games and sub $20 titles along with an end cap filled with "greatest hits" type titles ranging for $15 to $20 a crack. There's...just...too...much...stuff.

So perhaps the market will party like it's 1986 and start pulling a Nintendo: put a restraint on games coming out and maybe this restraint will force some companies' bean counters to let loose their grip on developers to get titles out yesterday. Nintendo's game monopoly aside, they had the right idea with limiting releases. True at times it caused a fervor (the infamous chip shortage when Super Mario 2 came out) but with very little nostalgia I can say that there were some decent games that came out on a regular basis then.

Sega opened the floodgates a bit with the Genesis and allowed more stuff to come out and later on Sony just blew up the dam and WHOOSH the market is flooded with Playstation stuff. If I can find Playstation stuff at a Menards you know it's gone a bit far. It's too much and a lot of it is average at best, not unlike the "500 TV channels and nothin' on" or restaurant menus with lots o' stuff but nothing that stands out phenomenon that seems to be creeping about. Don't spoil us with LOTS of options, make it special.

[christianscott27]

i just wish each console had a more distinct personality. for some reason it really bugs me to see games on all three platforms, thats gonna suck for future collecting. the gamecube has somewhat of nintendo exclusive flavor but the PS2 and xbox are pretty much the same.

[Cmosfm]

I think a sign of a crash is a drop in prices and people not buying them. Hmmm...being that just about all Best Buy's are sold out of the games...no crash, just clearing out the games that aren't selling.