Xbox360 to lead next gen up to 2008?

[sabre2922]

The introduction of PS3 and Revolution in the U.S. is pegged to be late 2006 with Sony introducing the rumored HD equipped PSP (presumably to tap into the iPod market) in mid-2006.


Hardware market share for the next cycle is predicted to eventually be 45%-50% for Sony, Microsoft at 35%-40% and Nintendo with 15%. That said, through 2008, Xbox 360 is predicted to be the market leader.

HW Units (millions)
2005
2006
2007
2008

PS2
5
4.3
3
2

Xbox
2.8
0.3
0
0

Gamecube
1.6
0.8
0.5
0

Gameboy - Series
7.5
5.5
5.6
6

PSP
3.8
5.5
5
6

PS3
0
1
6
8.5

Xbox 360
1.1
6
6.5
6

Revolution
0
0.5
2
3

Total
21.8
23.9
28.6
31.5



Installed Base (millions)
2005
2006
2007
2008

PSP
3.8
9.3
14.3
20.3

PS3
0
1
7
15.5

Xbox 360
1.1
7.1
13.6
19.6

Revolution
0
0.5
2.5
5.5

http://next-gen.biz/index.php?option...=1191&Itemid=2


Hmmm not so sure bout this

but if this speculation is even close it means the PS2 would sale an additional 12-14 MILLION units by 2008

But the Revo only selling around 3 million by 2008? that I think is a very low estimate

[classicb]

I think its difficult to predict how the Revolution will do since its not Gamecube 2.

also it says

Most of that growth will be in handheld hardware, which has been tipped to grow 45% over the next cycle.

but then it doesn't mention the DS at all unless he counts it as part of the "Gameboy series" which acording to those numbers will be even with the PSP in 2006.

all in all it looks like some half baked speculation but then again I'm no industy analyst

[Icarus Moonsight]

Looks like those speculators didn't catch Iwata's keynote at TGS. But seriously, I don't much care for these numbers... all the statitions have to go on is historical data and considering the players in the current console market that only goes back 5 or so years. IMO not enough data to make an accurate projection. Damn money mongers! Bah!

[sabre2922]

Yeah I think this is waaay off it just doesnt pan out

The Only one I agree with would be the speculated PS2 sales other than that who knows

[njiska]

I think its difficult to predict how the Revolution will do since its not Gamecube 2.

also it says

Most of that growth will be in handheld hardware, which has been tipped to grow 45% over the next cycle.

but then it doesn't mention the DS at all unless he counts it as part of the "Gameboy series" which acording to those numbers will be even with the PSP in 2006.

all in all it looks like some half baked speculation but then again I'm no industy analyst

That's insane. There is no way in hell the PSP is gonna tie the GBA and the DS in that span of time. There's just no way.

Hell even now the PSP has pretty much plateaued and there isn't really anything for it. Yeah, there are a couple of good games like Lumines, but most are sad crap. Even the upcoming PSP games don't look that spectacular.

Meanwhile the DS has an amazing line of titles well into next year with no sign of stopping. Something is fishy.

[EricRyan34]

I have no idea what most of this really means, I just think that it depends on what games come out for what system and the right time to sell the units