Game industry will crash!!

[GameDeals.ca]

The industry WILL crash. It's not a matter or "if" but a matter of "when". The advent of the Internet is changing our world and it is affecting almost every business model. We joke about how we should get into the food industry since "you can't download food". The music industry took the first hit... tv & film are not far behind... then videogames. Budgets are going up... and revenue is not following. More people are pirating their media than ever before (now that the information is well documented online). Not to mention the onslaught of crappy games & "roster update" sequals. There is still a chance that the industry can prevent a crash... but it would take massive change that I doubt they would choose to permit until they are forced to.

[syd]

I don't think the industry is going to crash anytime soon. Sure most of the games aren't as good as they used to be, but that goes for just about everything nowadays. The music industry is getting shittier by the day, and Hollywood is going frantic because they can't think of a new movie so they keep releasing remakes. Eventually there will be another renaissance of new ideas, but the question is how long do we have to wait? And how many terrible remakes/sequels do we have to put up with?

[kevin_psx]

http://theinquirer.net/?article=27976 Above is a very interesting article. It talks about how the game industry is due for a crash like there was in the 80's.

Old news. People have predicted a crash since 1995. Think videogaming is here to stay - like movies.

[Trebuken]

I could imagine a crashing video game market (I hope so, might give me time to catch-up on my collecting), but I do not think it will resemble the 80's crash, where there was just nothing going on in gaming of note. I think it'll be just a flutter where every element of the industry will have to re-evaluate their strategies. If the 80's crash is the Great Depression, the next one will resemble the stock market after 9/11 or the fall of the tech stocks...

Later,
Trebuken

[Joker T]

Video gaming is very big it won't crash this is a bunch of shit.
The guy made some valid opinons but I doubt it.

[Arkaign]

Hmm, if the major industrialized nations with the heavily debt-ridden Fiat-based currency systems go through what is euphemistacally called a 'correction' .. I think it will take Microsoft and Sony straight out of the gaming market for awhile, along with virtually any company already riding slim margins.

A serious economic depression could easily send the purchase power of the dollar to 10% of what it is now. Imagine $20/gallon gas and electricity bills of $3,000.

Hyperinflation is a serious risk that is run when people keep punting off the debt and interest to the following generations.

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2004/ja...debt-j15.shtml

[lendelin]

Don't worry about a crash -- the game industry crashes for the last twenty years and did pretty well all this time.

Note: the historical analogies between the situation of 1983/84 and today is as non-sensical and idiotic as Bill Clintons comparison between the pre-WWI situation and the Bosnian conflict. Yes, it is so bad and dumb.

[davepesc]

While, I'm not predicting one, I don't see why a crash is so far-fetched.
At the risk of oversimplifying, I think the last crash was the result of too many rushed-out crappy games (check) and something "better" for the masses to flock to in home computers. That is the missing component.

If something comes down the pike that diverts enough people away from console video games, of course there could be a crash.

[kevin_psx]

A serious economic depression could easily send the purchase power of the dollar to 10% of what it is now. Imagine $20/gallon gas and electricity bills of $3,000. Hyperinflation is a serious risk that is run when people keep punting off the debt and interest to the following generations.

Hperinflation? Thought it was caused by government printing too much money - devaluation of the paper dollar?

"This figure, representing credit card and car loan debt, but excluding mortgages, translates into approximately $18,700 per US household. Experts warn that the debt bubble potentially dwarfs the US stock market asset bubble that burst in 2000. "

The bursting debt bubble caused the 1929 Crash. Stocks bought with credit. Issuers demanded payment - people did not have money - stock lost value.

Can see the same thing happening with credit cards - VISA demands payment - consumers don't have it - lose homes. Companies don't have money to repay creditors - companies lay off workers - some go bankrupt.

[ice1605]

Nintendo didn't kill Mario. Anyway, I think that the market will not crash. After all, there are just TOO MANY people who play videogames. Also, some people will accept terrible videogames if Microsoft or Sony stuffs it down their throat. And, the PSX didn't take over the market, the N64 took over by a year after it's release. The only reason PS1 games are still being sold is because of the PS2's PS1 gaming capability. Nintendo can ride out the bad times, but Microsoft and Sony will have a harder time with that. Besides, it would be rather hard to collapse a 100+ year old company that is highly respected in the videogaming market.

[kevin_psx]

the PSX didn't take over the market, the N64 took over by a year after it's release.

???? The PS1 outsold N64 - 90 million to 30 million. "N64 took over" not an accurate statement.

[googlefest1]

i didnt read what others had written (becasue ive read through a ton of these threads already) so if im adding an already mentioned vewpoint disregard this


i think the only way there will be a crash is if the economy takes a bigger turn for the worse -- people right now want the biggest and latest products and new games will continue to be purchased. Sureley there will be a winner and a looser in this next gen area of gameing but i will not say the looser lost due to a video game crash.

[Zadoc]

The last one happened at the height of Atari's power, they were invincible, pumping out hit after hit. Pac-Man, ET, Asteroids, movie tie-ins, overflowing arcades and a rabid fan base. They were in the spotlight of the mainstream press, songs making the top 10, and money coming out of their ears. What could go wrong?

This author hasn't a clue. For starters, Atari was not pumping out the hits at the time of the crash nor was it the height of Atari's power. Atari's 2600 was stale, very stale, and the 5200 was a dismal failure. It was not backwards compatible, it was not the leap in graphics that was promised, and its library consisted of mostly 2600 ports.

The market crashed not because there was a "a flood of games that sucked," but because there weren't strong protections of IP rights. Dozens of companies were allowed to "re-engineer" the 2600, Colecovision and Intellivision. Mattel, CoLeCo and Atari were losing out of grips of cash. Not only that, but console developers weren't making money off of the third party software as they to today.

Unlicensed third parts were churning out crap and the market became flooded worthless junk that the console manufactures had absolutely no control over.

The author is so clueless that he writes, "The last one happened at the height of Atari's power, they were invincible, pumping out hit after hit. Pac-Man, ET, Asteroids..." Asteroids was a vector arcade game that could not be duplicated on the 2600, moreover, Asteroids was released about five years before the crash. As for Pacman, I think we all know that that's a Namco title, the home version of which couldn't hardly be called Pacman at all. Finally, he envokes ET. Since when was this a hit? Somewhere there is a landfill full of this junk.

The reason for the first crash is that console developers didn't have control over their consoles; they do now.

The other reason is that third parties weren't serious businesses, and they were looking to make a quick easy buck. These days third parties invest millions and millions of dollars into a single video game. The industry is very serious and it does rival Hollywood.

Finally, the public takes the game industry serious. Unlike in the 80s, video games are no longer viewed as a fad. They are here to stay and they are well embedded into pop-culture. Their popularity and mainstram acceptance will only grow and swell and time moves forward