Many people feel that at the upcoming e3 show in May, Sony will be forced to lay their cards on the table regarding the PS3 and whether or not it will actually be available for sale in the U.S. in 2006. Typically, if a system is going to be released in the U.S. in that calender year, then it is a known fact at the e3 show. Companies like Wal-Mart and Target and Best Buy need to know what products they are going to have on their shelves for the all important 4th quarter season. They need to know what Point of Purchase advertising displays they are going to need. They need to know what kind of marketing they will have to do later in the year, to best promote and take advantage of any launch.
The thing is, with the current situation that is going on with the Playstation 3, and it's cost to manufacture, and the issues of it's blue ray drive, etc, etc, I'm not so sure that Sony is committed to releasing this system in the U.S. in 2006. We have all heard the various reports of the actual cost of getting a PS3 to retail as being $800 or $900. We all know that Hardware manufacturers take losses on their hardware for the first several years. Typically, the most a company like Sony or Microsoft is willing to loose on a product is about $150. So if you believe the $800 or $900 senarios that have been thrown around, then it's pretty obvious that the PS3 would HAVE to cost more than $499.99. It would HAVE to cost more than $599.99.
While consumers are willing to pay more for must have electronic devices, (just look at the number of 360's sold on Ebay for ridiculous amounts) there is a limit to how much consumers are willing to spend, and there are long term ramifactions to any launch price structure that is used. There is also the matter of perception. The Xbox 360 price of $399.99, while higher than what most people were thinking ($299.99), it's still reasonable. It's palatable. A PS3 price of $499.99 is probably more than what most people would be willing to pay, but it is relatively reasonable, all things considered, and relatively palatable. You go beyond that $499.99 threshold, and things change. Perceptions change. The way the retailers position the product, changes, the kind of retailers that will carry the product change. Alot of things change when you get into the high dollar amounts similar to what the Neo-Geo and 3DO system launched with.
Don't get it twisted, Sony is still Sony. They will get tons of retailer support regardless, but a PS3 retailing for more than the magical price point of $499.99, does change the game. Of course, everybody at Sony is extremely well aware of this fact, and there isn't any question that they are caught in a pickle with this situation. The clock is ticking. e3 2006 isn't that far away. Decisions need to be made. Decisions that could affect the future profitability of Sony for a very long time.
So the question is..... Will Sony pull a fast one? Will they go into this e3 with a strategy of "PRETENDING" that everything is A-ok, and that the PS3 will launch sometime prior to Thanksgiving, in the neighborhood of $500, knowing damn well that they have absolutely no intention of releasing the system in 2006 with that great a loss per system sold. Now, you might be thinking that such talk is Oliver Stone like, and that I'm dreaming up some kind of conspiracy theory. That Sony has too strong of relations with companies like Best Buy and Target and Wal-Mart, to basically flat out lie to these companies and pretend that their product is right on schedule for a November 2006 launch for $499.99, knowing damn well they simply can't afford to take that great a loss on each system sold, and that as they get towards late August, they will have to come out with a major announcement, that the PS3 will unfortunately be delayed till Summer 2007.
BANK ON IT.