The Earthbound Inflation Thread

[Guru of Time and Space]

The thing about Earthbound is... it's definitely not for squares. It's got a very unique vibe, and if that's freaking you guys out, smoke a joint or something.

-GoTaS

[Kyle15]

So, I take it that you actually did try your hand at herding cats?

Only once during low tide. That's a story I'd rather not tell....

[goatdan]

I've actually seen quite a few game prices drop due to VC releases (amongst other things). Mostly it's been common games, tho still... Suikoden 2 used to sell for $200, not it's going for $100 (or less sometimes). Valkyrie Profile used to sell for $100, now goes for $50~60. Final Fantasy VII used to go for $80~100, now it sells for $40 if that. Castlevania SOTN, Final Fantasy Tactics, Star Ocean 2nd Story... this isn't even talking about really common stuff like the Donkey Kong Country trilogy or really pretty much ANY common game you can think of that people would want.

Actually, I apologize, you're right -- I was referring (although I didn't type this) specifically to cartridge era titles. Using Donkey Kong Country as an example, I've sold it for the exact same price for the last 8 years on the GOAT Store, and whenever we get it we can never keep them in stock. In fact, both after the VC release as well as the release of Donkey Kong Country Returns, we had a surge in people asking about the titles in cartridge form.

For whatever reason, discs with the exception of titles that had some sort of special packaging, seem to drop a lot after a VC release, but I have never seen that same phenomena with cartridge titles, at least not on anything the GOAT Store stocks. Well, there might be one other reason for that, more on that in a bit...

Part of it is the VC, part of it is the economy and part of it is that game collecting was starting to turn into the next card collecting (or comic collecting) for awhile. People would pay high prices to relive their childhoods and justify it by saying they could always resell for more than what they paid since prices were only going to keep going up.

I've been hearing it's cyclical and that N64 is the next system to jump in price, but beyond a couple of games, I haven't seen it. In fact, a few of the consistent high sellers have dropped in price (Ogre Battle 64, Harvest Moon 64) with really only Conker's going up. I can count on maybe both hands the number of games that have had price spikes or held onto their high prices, while I wouldn't even be able to list all of the ones that have had their prices fall.

From my experiences, consoles follow a very specific trend where when they are discontinued, there is an instant drop in price as locations clearance off titles, you can find them in clearance bins and so on. People dump them at Goodwill because you can't get new games for them any more, and so on. This is almost always the low point of the console's value.

Approximately a year after the console is officially announced as discontinued, the market starts to stabilize as the games become harder and harder to find, and used places (especially GameStop) start dumping their copies too.

After that point in time, the games will have a period of generally two to four years while the market matures. During that time, the common but really popular non-sports titles tend to raise in value slowly before settling at a certain point, and a few games become known as being diamonds in the rough or 'must buys', and those titles start commanding an extreme price. Once this has occurred, the market remains pretty solid.

The things that play into that formula is if the console that is next in line is backwards compatible or not. If it is, the marketplace gets really screwy as we saw with the PS1 already, as people dump their system and a bump of their games, but they keep their favorites. This makes it appear as if those games are very rare, and they inflate in value like crazy. But, the people who keep those games generally are the people who aren't collectors, which means that now, when they move on to non-backwards compatible PS3s, they are dumping those games and flooding the market with them. I think that it's essentially delaying where the market should have ended up to begin with. In those cases, the VC releases are exacerbating the problem, as it reminds people who aren't collecting that they can dump those games now that the new one is out.

It's my theory at least. I have collected both the Dreamcast and Jaguar when they were in that 'death honeymoon' if you will, and assembled complete or nearly complete collections for pennies on the dollar. Both of those have raised in value significantly since then. The PS1 though never quite got that period, and it's still a wacky system to try to predict. It's actually specifically why we don't carry the PS1, PS2, any Game Boy or GameCube games -- Backwards compatibility makes the used market all screwy and nearly impossible to predict. It's way less risky to buy and sell SNES era titles than it is to do the same with PS1 titles that might suddenly get dumped on the market like we've seen.

As for Earthbound, if it came out on the VC then HELL YES the price for a cart only copy would plummet. I remember when the price was fairly low for one, and I'd imagine it would go back to being that price again. The CIB price likely wouldn't take a hit, or much of one anyway, since it's what you might call a "deluxe package." So if you have a cart only copy sitting around and you're thinking of selling it, do it now while the price is still high. I highly doubt Nintendo will keep Earthbound off the VC forever. It's just not as high a priority for them at the moment since it would require a few changes to be made and that costs money (and time, and time is money). Eventually, tho, they'll run out of games (that don't require changes) to release on the VC and get around to rolling out Earthbound (since they know they'll be able to charge a premium AND the demand is there for it).

I really don't think the original would drop in price much. Maybe a little, but the Chrono Trigger release on PS1, and DS, and Virtual Console, and whatever else they are redoing it for in the future hasn't really brought down the price of the original. And I think that Earthbound compares very much with CT as the genre, system and everything match...

[FxMercenary]

BUMP, the Complete copy is now at $630.00

[Ryaan1234]

BUMP, the Complete copy is now at $630.00

That now makes a complete copy of Earthbound worth more than a copy of Alice: An Interactive Museum.

[understatement]

thought these

[pseudonym]

Shit, I remember when you could find a complete copy of this game for $200.

[Cornelius]

Shit, I remember when you could find a complete copy of this game for $200.

Wow, you must be an Elephant!

[pseudonym]

Wow, you must be an Elephant!

I know! It was just two years ago!

[Zing]

Final Fantasy VII was an odd one. It was going consistently for $20, then the movie came out. The price went way up and stayed there for whatever reason. It looks like complete, auction style copies are going for just under $30 now.

I had no idea Valkyrie Profile had lost half its value. I just bought it a little over a year ago for $80.

I sold my copy of the PC game Alice for $60 shortly after the movie came out. I wonder what its worth now? Before the movie, it was a $5 game if you were lucky.

[mobiusclimber]

Actually, I apologize, you're right -- I was referring (although I didn't type this) specifically to cartridge era titles. Using Donkey Kong Country as an example, I've sold it for the exact same price for the last 8 years on the GOAT Store, and whenever we get it we can never keep them in stock. In fact, both after the VC release as well as the release of Donkey Kong Country Returns, we had a surge in people asking about the titles in cartridge form.

[cut to stuff about Earthbound]

I really don't think the original would drop in price much. Maybe a little, but the Chrono Trigger release on PS1, and DS, and Virtual Console, and whatever else they are redoing it for in the future hasn't really brought down the price of the original. And I think that Earthbound compares very much with CT as the genre, system and everything match...

When I referred to the DKC series, I actually meant 2 and 3, which for awhile I could sell for $20 and as high as $30 for DKC3. Now I get $10 for the first one and, if I'm lucky, $15 apiece for 2 and 3. So yeah the price on the first one hasn't changed, but 2 and 3 I can't get as much for anymore. And I've seen this with a lot of the classic series that people really want. Castlevania, Contra, etc etc. They just don't sell for as much as they did a few years.

In regards to CT, I think its price is staying where it's at b/c it's not super expensive. Earthbound used to be the same or $10 less than CT, and they are both about the same as far as rarity goes. The only thing that pushed the price up on EB was a combination of Ness appearing in Smash Bros and the dawning realization that a VC port wasn't forthcoming. CTs price didn't drop because it was never inflated to begin with. RPGs with followings tend to hold their value pretty well. I've actually noticed some games have had their prices drop after a VC release only to go back to what it was before since its price was pretty much where it should be at in regards to rarity and desirability. I watched it happen with Secret of Mana, for instance. Some games haven't bounced back fully, like Super Mario RPG, and some have been released too many times to ever recover (like Final Fantasy "II" and "III").

I'm not arguing that video game collecting or even reselling is going to be or has been devastated by digital re-releases. But I do think the casual "collector," the kind of person with more money than patience, is mostly being satisfied by those re-releases and so some of the inflation in prices has disappeared. And I think quite a bit of the price of Earthbound is made up by those casual collectors who have to have the game whether its worth that $100 bid they just made or not.

[wingzrow]

That now makes a complete copy of Earthbound worth more than a copy of Alice: An Interactive Museum.

Ouch, did we really have to go there?

[goatdan]

Wow, worthwhile conversation from an Earthbound thread, kudos

When I referred to the DKC series, I actually meant 2 and 3, which for awhile I could sell for $20 and as high as $30 for DKC3. Now I get $10 for the first one and, if I'm lucky, $15 apiece for 2 and 3. So yeah the price on the first one hasn't changed, but 2 and 3 I can't get as much for anymore. And I've seen this with a lot of the classic series that people really want. Castlevania, Contra, etc etc. They just don't sell for as much as they did a few years.

Then maybe I was underpriced to begin with, but the GOAT Store has pretty much always had good labeled of these games for the following prices:

DKC - $14.99
DKC2 - $15.99
DKC3 - $19.99

I actually purposely bought a ton of these all recently because we sold out of the stock we had shortly after the release of DKCR, but DKC3 in particular (which, as an aside, I love the DKC series and 3 is by *far* the worst in my opinion) whenever we put it up for $19.99 or whatever sells within a couple days.

And, I'd also say that since the VC releases of these games, the price for the boxed versions has definitely inflated. Those I haven't had in a while, but I know I would revise up if I got them. And I think that is part of it, when you turn collectors onto something like that, they don't just want the cartridge, they want the whole package nice and mint to display. And that is the biggest thing that drives up the price of those types of packages...

In regards to CT, I think its price is staying where it's at b/c it's not super expensive. Earthbound used to be the same or $10 less than CT, and they are both about the same as far as rarity goes. The only thing that pushed the price up on EB was a combination of Ness appearing in Smash Bros and the dawning realization that a VC port wasn't forthcoming. CTs price didn't drop because it was never inflated to begin with. RPGs with followings tend to hold their value pretty well. I've actually noticed some games have had their prices drop after a VC release only to go back to what it was before since its price was pretty much where it should be at in regards to rarity and desirability. I watched it happen with Secret of Mana, for instance. Some games haven't bounced back fully, like Super Mario RPG, and some have been released too many times to ever recover (like Final Fantasy "II" and "III").

Well, but CTs price just by virtue of the fact that it is now SO readily available for other consoles should have affected it somewhat if it was to be effected.

I mean, the other thing that we've got at work here and should be at least thought about in this conversation is piracy. Now, I don't agree with piracy at all, but a lot of companies thought that it would be the downfall of their games. Why buy a real physical copy of CT (or Earthbound, or whatever) if you can play it on your PC, your iPhone, your PDA if you still have one, your PSP, etc. Well, piracy has affected the used game market almost nil, so if that was truly what was going on, we should have seen sinking prices for all this stuff.

To be completely upfront, I bought a PSP for Mother, Earthbound and Mother 3. Now, I own the Mother 3 Game Boy Micro package as well as literally every other Mother / Earthbound release ever (including the soundtracks and stuff), but I wanted to play them in an easier format. Having purchased a PSP literally just for this purpose in no way made me want to sell the games, in fact it got me to track down a copy of Mother 1 & 2 GBA too. Often, availability leads to further interest in the originals.

So anyway, yeah you do see *some* fluctuation with digital releases, but it is usually pretty minor, and depending on the title it can actually lead to an increase in price, like I noted on the boxed copies of games.

I'm not arguing that video game collecting or even reselling is going to be or has been devastated by digital re-releases. But I do think the casual "collector," the kind of person with more money than patience, is mostly being satisfied by those re-releases and so some of the inflation in prices has disappeared. And I think quite a bit of the price of Earthbound is made up by those casual collectors who have to have the game whether its worth that $100 bid they just made or not.

Well, here's the thing that I wonder about Earthbound. Panzer Dragoon Saga is a great example of this -- there are collectors who own the game and keep it, but the majority of people that seem to buy it seem to want it so they can play it and resell it. In fact, the last time that I had it in stock, I had people ask me if they could "rent" it from us for like $20 and return it. I think that the reason you're seeing so many Earthbounds on eBay and so on is that people are buying it not to keep it but to play it and then resell it. That is pretty common with casual "collectors" it seems.

Ultimately, no matter what, people have a limit as to what they are willing to pay for a game. For me, although I own a few games that are worth hundreds, I've never paid that much for a game. No matter what game, no matter how much I enjoy it, if I'm paying pinball machine prices for a cartridge or disc, I'm buying another pinball machine instead (if I can afford it at that time). Others will look at that and say they are paying the rent, or buying a new console, or going on a vacation or whatever. Some will find that $600+ copy of Earthbound worth it.

Finally, I think that Earthbound in some ways will remain a status symbol for collectors now. Not just is it a game that people have talked and talked and talked about, but it has a GIANT box that it came in. If you are putting together a SNES collection of RPGs and a buddy is coming over, they are going to see the Final Fantasy series, Sword of Mana, Chrono Trigger and so on, but what will stand out is the GIANT boxed copy of Earthbound that you have. It's different, it's a conversation starter, and for that alone it will be more of a status symbol for people. Since RPG collectors often very much so drive the market for collectible games, I fully believe that it will remain the SNES grail game because of that. It might be WAY more common than, say, Fun 'N Games, but unlike Fun 'N Games, this is a game people would actually play.

Cool conversation, good counterpoints by the way -- one can never tell exactly what is going to happen, I just have my hunches on this game

[HappehLemons]

I bought a loose copy from DP member "HappehLemons" 18 months ago for $60. That seemed really fair to me at the time. I can't believe a loose copy is going for twice that now.

Haha, I remember that. I knew it was really low but I simply wasn't playing it and wanted to give it to someone who possibly would at a decent price. I later got a boxed copy for some reason... I still have no idea why I own this game. Still never played it.

At least the price is DOUBLED since i got it. Really thinking of selling it at this point but I feel like I'll regret that.

[DuckTalesNES]

I still have it and its my pile of "to play" games :-)

[FxMercenary]

The Auctions have Ended and I think we have a new High Price Record!

http://cgi.ebay.com/Super-Nintendo-S...item3cb773eac0

CIB Earthbound has sold for... $730.00!!!!!!!!!!

[FxMercenary]

The Auctions have Ended! Check 1st post for final results!