Originally Posted by
WCP
I've seen people post threads about how there might be another video game crash, and I would always giggle to myself when I saw those threads. I never really thought another crash could happen. I still don't think a crash, in the 1983 sense, will happen again, but now I'm starting to actually believe some of the doom and gloom predictions that people are having about the traditional games business. It's just seems like something strange is blowing in the wind right now. I'm not sure how this all going to play out, but I can realistically see some extremely painful years happening in the gaming industry right about now.
Just consider the last 3 systems that have been launched. Nintendo 3DS, Playstation Vita and Nintendo Wii U. All three got off to pretty horrible starts. The 3DS has recovered somewhat (and is thriving in Japan), but the Vita is still on death watch and the Wii U looks to be in serious danger of having a very limited amount of penetration into the market. The 3DS in the US hasn't been as big a success as it probably should be. Unfortunately, Nintendo just isn't giving enough software (Where's Luigi's Mansion ?) The games seem to be overpriced, and the selection is pretty laughable. I mean, you go to Target, and you go to the 3DS section, and there are only a handful of games really worth the drama. Same thing with Vita. ( I actually think the Vita's library is better than the 3DS, but not by much). The Wii U has had one of the worst launch lineups in the history of gaming. ( I don't care about quantity and multiplatforms. I want quality and exclusives)
The last time some hardware came out, and it was susccessful, was the Kinect in November 2010. It was really hot because it was the hot X-Mas gift that year, and also the whole dancing game thing really started to blow up. Kinect has sold crazy numbers of units, and was very popular. Kinect however, was an accessory, like a rock band kit or something, and it wasn't a gaming system. So, while it was succesful, it wasn't a full fledged gaming system. It's been a long time since we've had a successful video game system launch. Now we have the PS4 and the Xbox Next coming this November, but both of them are going to release for $399 or more. We know both companies have a dedicated following that will buy the system right away, (even if they were $600), but once you run out of those guys, will the general public be interested ? Or, will the general public be more interested in playing with the newest iPad ? It just seems like we are entering this strange situation with the arrival of PS4 and the new Xbox, and Ouya and Steam Box and Occulus Rift and Nvidia Shield, and all this crazy stuff. Then of course you know there will be new iphones and new ipads coming.
It seems like the market is going to be flooded with too many games, too many systems, too many options. If the General Public decides that they just aren't interested in spending $400 or $500 on a new console, things could get really sketchy.
As for the portable market, it looks like that market is changed forever. Sony and Nintendo would both somehow need to come out with an iphone killer to have any hope. I just don't see it. The Vita is on lifesupport, and the 3DS is only barely treading water (in the US).