This.
I've seen it 3 times over now. People ramp up retro purchases at the end of one generation, and then as the next generation release nears retro purchases slow.
Also ebay sales always seem to taper-off as a new school years gets going. Then there will be some peaks around Thanksgiving and the winter holidays.
Even though I don't collect much for the SNES anymore, I think it's good for the hobby if the game prices come down and get more realistic. I'd 100% agree that N64 and GameCube games are going up. Recently i've seen what I thought were relatively common games like Luigi's Mansion going for $30-$40.
The spike in Luigi's Mansion's price was caused by the release of the 3DS sequel, but it was really only a temporary spike, used prices have already dropped. I sold several copies for $45 or so about 6 months ago, now it goes for less than $20.
When annoyingly price stuff like aerofighters comes down near 200 instead of over 300 I might start buying into a price drop. Certain games wobble, I'd like to see consistency.
X2 was originally one of the more expensive games, probably because of the Cx4 (I recall it was like $70-75 when SNES games averaged $60).
7 and X3 were released when Capcom USA didn't really care anymore about 16-bit.
I don't agree that Capcom didn't care anymore once X2 rolled out, I think they cared quite a bit, but they were just more cautious in production numbers realizing as they would far before consumers that Sega and Sony had something up their sleeves. Mega Man X2 was a $60 game in my area, I remember it, and it wasn't the only as MM7 and MMX3 were too, but that wasn't the end of Capcom. If you recall they cared enough to release Street Fighter Alpha 2 in 1996 AFTER the N64 and Mario 64 had hit the market and they wanted $60 for that one because of that big SDD1 mass compression chip it and only Star Ocean otherwise used in Japan. They put good effort into what they bothered with, even if MMX as a series was played out already a bit story wise between 2 and 3. MM7 was a solid effort and SFA2 was surprisingly good given the hardware (SNES) it was put on.
Megaman X2 has been expensive forever, I remember it being a $120 game at Funcoland in 1999 and trading mine in for $85 in credit.
Everytime I see someone mention Aero Fighters I get annoyed because I remember passing on a copy for $4.99 plus tax years ago. I didn't even have a SNES console at the time so I didn't remember much about that game, only when I looked it up back home did I start kicking myself. Add it to the list of games I've passed on for cheap prices, including Earthbound, and Zombie Nation for NES. At that time I didn't buy any game for more than $5 total, unless I knew for sure it was something special.
Aerofighters. What the heck? This game is so expensive. Why? Was it one of the last games made? Is it the best game ever made? I'm stymied.
Aerofighters is a regret loaded thorn in my ass bluntly put. I had a a decade ago, hit hard times, sold off around 1000 games and a dozen systems roughly speaking as I was through unemployment, had to debt myself 5K to start a small part time business teaching while working at the racetrack for 2 years straight with no days off to break even most months so games went to get new games or pay bills. I had got the game back in the mid-late 90s for $10 with all the papers short of the box. Everytime I see it at $300+ I want to punch the imaginary person(s) I envision in my mind in the face that drove the price up. It's not a widely mass produced game, but it's not super scarce and it wasn't a rental only like Hagane supposedly was. It shows up as often as another semi-rarity called Kendo Rage (a goofy japanese side scroller platformer game with a girl and a sword.) That game rolls around the $10-20 range, $30 on a dumb BIN with all the paper/box. Aerofighters is a $300 cart, no justice, and while it's a very nice shooter, it's not excellent by any means like a few others. It's just fanboy bullshit hype and the reseller predators that pray on it. Personally in the retail environment I've seen as many of those as Earthbound over the years. Video game speculators are getting beyond annoying, and the sooner the bottom falls out on some of their schemes the better.
Maybe Capcom Japan was still interested, but Capcom USA wasn't.
I can remember very well when Nintendo Power announced in early 1995 (Pak Watch, I want to say in the spring) ,after X2 was out, that Capcom was canceling the NA release of MM7 because of a lack of interest in 16-bit.
Probably because they realized the 32-bit market was too new to depend on, Capcom announced five SNES games (MM7, X3, BoF2, Final Fight 3, Marvel War of the Gems) for release the following Christmas season with ads "Long Live the Super NES". And that was the last SNES games we saw from them in NA. (so much for "long living" :P )
Nintendo published SFA2 outside Japan.
Even checking scans of Nintendo Power in 1995, I believe Capcom was uncertain if they wanted to release BoF2 either.
Prices are not going down. Why? People that bought at high price, will sell it at high price. Even if the game has been released digitally, the physical media will be high priced. Just look how the variant collectors pay for a variant.
Not everyone is a collector, some people buy games just because they want to play them.
The OP is right and Earthbound is a great example since it's price has skyrocketed in the past 4 years and people had insisted that it would never see a VC release.
Now someone that might've spent $150 on an Earthbound cart just to play it can now instead grab it on the VC for 1/10th the price. That means one less person bidding on Earthbound carts and, in theory, lower overall winning bid prices as there are fewer people fighting over them.
That's how supply and demand works. What world do you live in where used items never drop in value?