my money's on this being just the 360 slim, upgraded with valhalla and bundled with natal. i'm sure it'll have an upgraded hard drive too, since ms is getting more serious about pushing direct-dl games.
if they created a new console that was only a minor upgrade, it would create a division between new and old consoles as much as a major upgrade would. if you're going to do that, might as well make it a big jump in power. besides, despite how much ms would love to wade in nintendo's blue ocean, i doubt they're willing to concede the core market to sony, who'd jump on an underpowered 360 successor with a beastly ps4, although not in 2010.