Eh, I think you misunderstand. I was stating that Xenoblade Chronicles and The Last Story, as niche-RPGs on a not-on-the-surface-known-for-niche-RPG-but-really-is-niche-RPG-friendly Wii, are selling so prominently well in the US market that Pandora's Tower will not "bomb" and in fact, I wanted to say you will not very easily find a dozen copies mixed in with the other Wii party schluck in the $5 bargain pit at your local Best Buy/Target/Walmart as Tanooki predicted would be.
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You probably shouldn't rely on the Online Rarity Guide's numbers as they haven't been updated in far too long. They are really only good for N64 and earlier, and even then only on the rarity side of things as game prices have changed quite a bit in the past few years. Basically, if anything listed on there has a price of "0" or a rarity of "0" then it typically has incomplete information. Thus I'm fairly certain that Radiata Stories's rarity rank of "1" is incorrect.
Hoping the price doesn't go up... just placed my preorder at the (awesome, especially as far as Gamestops go) Henderson Gamestop.
Will probably enjoy it until I hit a choke point and not touch it for 4+ months like with Xenoblade Chronicles, but I hope it'll be fun.
(now currently stuck in Final Fantasy IV, PSP version)
Serving the retrogaming community since March 2005
DP feedback: +47(!), no negatives
can be found here: http://www.digitpress.com/forum/showthread.php?t=66092
Ah, thanks for the info. I know about the rarity 0 games, but I had assumed that if an actual number was given, that was real info. So does anybody know what rarity rank would be applied to a game with a print run of 100-150k copies? I know Valkyrie Profile's overseas sales were 73,000, and since the original PS1 version was only released in Japan and the US, that figure has to be the entirety of the US sales. It has a rarity number of 3 in the guide, so I'd guess that The Last Story couldn't get anything higher than a 2.
The online rarity guide isn't anywhere near that scientific.
While there is a degree of opinion involved, it's not like people just pulled the rarity numbers out of a hat. Each is based on some form of data, and I'm sure print run/sales figures are some of the most valuable forms of data if made public. Each rarity number must represent some range of copy numbers.
I'm not aware of anyone ever really using print runs to generate the rarity numbers here or elsewhere. After all, on older games, how would you ever know how many copies of any given game still survive? Even newer games that don't sell well could have had significant numbers of copies destroyed to clear stock. My understanding is that the rarity in the DP guide is all based on opinion and the experience of the collectors who helped create that particular section. It's not just pulling numbers out of a hat, but it's also not objective in any meaningful way.
Well, sales figures are obviously more valuable than print run figures, but print run numbers are definitely better than no official number. And if a company states that a print run has sold out, then the print run and sales figures are one in the same at that point, like with The Last Story and its initial 100k that had already sold.
I'm sure many of the numbers are a result of years of collected experience from collectors and/or shop owners. But if you have a great deal of experience with two games that appear to be equally common, with sales figures known for one and no public figures available for the other, it's not unreasonable to assume that the one with an unknown amount probably sold a number in the same ballpark. Or, for the reverse perspective, if a game with no figures is considered mildly rare and a game that sold so-and-so number is also considered mildly rare, then all games that sold around the amount of the second game should be considered mildly rare and get the same rarity number, even before gathering data in the wild.
That sounds great and all, but up until the last few years, sales figures haven't really been readily available to the public and the time involved in trying to find all of them and then correlate them to rarity really hasn't been a priority here or elsewhere as far as I can tell. Plus, a game can be numerically rare but not be in demand at all and therefore far more common and available than something that had a far larger print run or sales but is wanted by more collectors. Availability and demand can also change radically over time as more copies surface or collectors discover a hidden gem. In any event, XSeed also seems to print a good quantity of their games and I wouldn't call any of their recent releases "rare", at least not yet.
Not heavily relying on sales figures hardly means that the numbers were just selected at random. They're primarily based on the experience of the member's that have contributed to it over the years.
I'd be very surprised to learn that even with the last couple of generations that a lot of statistical analysis based on things like NPD data has been utilized. It's taking it to an extreme what collectors can quantify just based on their personal experiences going after the items in question.
It's not a Bible, it's a guide. That perhaps one could argue with statistics that a game should be rated differently based on sales data compared to its peers is irrelevant. It's just a guideline to give someone a rough idea on how common or rare a game is and really doesn't call for such detailed analysis.
Last edited by Leo_A; 01-22-2013 at 06:13 PM.
...And today's the day that Pandora's Tower is finally out in North America. At least in theory: the EBGames near my workplace where I pre-ordered the game hadn't received their copies as of this morning, but they're supposed to receive it around 1pm. Even if I did have it in my hands, I couldn't play it till late tonight anyway.
I just got my shipping notice earlier this morning as well from Amazon. Now to wait
Got mine today!